In the year end, everybody go holiday. Activity reduced including stock market. Everybody prefer to pass this year with a relax mood after a stressful 2012 market. So many things had happened like the survival series of Europe, elections of so many countries. Those events had altered my portfolio mix of stock significantly. At glance my portfolio look messy, seems like no significant bet on any sector. I think hard but don't know what to bet and what to expect going into 2013. Is it oil and gas, transportation, oil palm, electronic sector, property, Islamic insurance, retail? Which one should I bet on giving the most return in 2013?
So I gave out thinking and cruise through 2013 and relax with empty thought.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
Which story do you prefer?
1st:
The world is in a long term volatile state. The global imbalance is getting more serious each day as US tries to depreciate their currency but in China and other part of the world keep buying the US debt to keep their currency low. US people has no chance to correct their spending habit because there is so much liquidity or cheap money for them. Further more, China is making its reform too slowly and muddling through because of new leadership conservatism. As the structural problem go on, the world will not find grow as US and Europe continue to drag down the whole economy. The world will facing another shock, time by time, and the next should not be too far away.
2nd:
The stagnant and possibility of shock from the economy of the US and Europe, cause the people in US and Europe to more depress. Less people is born there and more is migrating to Asia causing population to shrink. With this, consumption sink. With the flood of migration to Asia, structural unemployment rise in Asia causing temporary chaos. US and Europe major demographic change cause the economy to in recession for years and years, may be 5 years or more (the period can be longer than you think). Finally because of smaller economy and Asia rise, the economy size balance between US, EUrope and Asia become more balance and even. From then on, the world economy grow resume.
3rd:
Nothing major change from US and Europe, the US continue to print money out of economy dire strait but nothing major fundamental improvement. The world is in chaos time to time, but China will be doing steady just like never been harm by asia financial crisis or early 90s bank crisis in US. It is because of China successful reform of encourage their people to consume more rather than save. South east asia have ever stronger balance sheet and reserve suffer less and lesser impact from the chaos from the west each time. Their reliance on export shifted bit by bit to China protected by China consumption and have less and less impact from the west. In fact, because of the consumption from China, and southeast asia, Asia region continue to prosper despite the stagnant of US and Europe economy.
4th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, Malaysia is having its first in its history of political control party change since its independence. The country is in complete chaos again and protest is rage. Street demonstration and violent is hunting and seriously hurt the economy. The losing side of the supporter is to be said to organised the protest and violent. Business is interrupted, every major project and development plan is suspended for review. Because of that, the economy slipped into recession and short term foreign fund seeking every single way to leave the country further exacerbate the problem. KLCI stock market plunge 50% to 800 range. Although the in charge political party assure of the future, lack of experience and outside confidence cause the recovery process to be slow.
5th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, Malaysia is having a change of political parties in its first time since independence, the opposition party agree to continue every current running project and make review at the back operation and make changes step by step slowly to avoid any drastic shock. This fare well for foreign investor confidence and they believe Malaysia is heading to a more transparent and less corruption country. Although there is protest from the losing party supporter and member, the chaos is under control to be not interrupt the business activity. Instead of coming down, the stock market shoot up to record high.
6th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, the reigning political party continue their reign. Whether its by majority or not, the stock market react dully. Whatever the outcome, the stock market follow the region stock market performance. No doubt the long term economy prospect will be promising because of the economic transformation plan initiate by the prime minister. Malaysia which has better planning and execution administration now is poise to moving its way to economy prosperity or development country status by 2020.
The world is in a long term volatile state. The global imbalance is getting more serious each day as US tries to depreciate their currency but in China and other part of the world keep buying the US debt to keep their currency low. US people has no chance to correct their spending habit because there is so much liquidity or cheap money for them. Further more, China is making its reform too slowly and muddling through because of new leadership conservatism. As the structural problem go on, the world will not find grow as US and Europe continue to drag down the whole economy. The world will facing another shock, time by time, and the next should not be too far away.
2nd:
The stagnant and possibility of shock from the economy of the US and Europe, cause the people in US and Europe to more depress. Less people is born there and more is migrating to Asia causing population to shrink. With this, consumption sink. With the flood of migration to Asia, structural unemployment rise in Asia causing temporary chaos. US and Europe major demographic change cause the economy to in recession for years and years, may be 5 years or more (the period can be longer than you think). Finally because of smaller economy and Asia rise, the economy size balance between US, EUrope and Asia become more balance and even. From then on, the world economy grow resume.
3rd:
Nothing major change from US and Europe, the US continue to print money out of economy dire strait but nothing major fundamental improvement. The world is in chaos time to time, but China will be doing steady just like never been harm by asia financial crisis or early 90s bank crisis in US. It is because of China successful reform of encourage their people to consume more rather than save. South east asia have ever stronger balance sheet and reserve suffer less and lesser impact from the chaos from the west each time. Their reliance on export shifted bit by bit to China protected by China consumption and have less and less impact from the west. In fact, because of the consumption from China, and southeast asia, Asia region continue to prosper despite the stagnant of US and Europe economy.
4th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, Malaysia is having its first in its history of political control party change since its independence. The country is in complete chaos again and protest is rage. Street demonstration and violent is hunting and seriously hurt the economy. The losing side of the supporter is to be said to organised the protest and violent. Business is interrupted, every major project and development plan is suspended for review. Because of that, the economy slipped into recession and short term foreign fund seeking every single way to leave the country further exacerbate the problem. KLCI stock market plunge 50% to 800 range. Although the in charge political party assure of the future, lack of experience and outside confidence cause the recovery process to be slow.
5th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, Malaysia is having a change of political parties in its first time since independence, the opposition party agree to continue every current running project and make review at the back operation and make changes step by step slowly to avoid any drastic shock. This fare well for foreign investor confidence and they believe Malaysia is heading to a more transparent and less corruption country. Although there is protest from the losing party supporter and member, the chaos is under control to be not interrupt the business activity. Instead of coming down, the stock market shoot up to record high.
6th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, the reigning political party continue their reign. Whether its by majority or not, the stock market react dully. Whatever the outcome, the stock market follow the region stock market performance. No doubt the long term economy prospect will be promising because of the economic transformation plan initiate by the prime minister. Malaysia which has better planning and execution administration now is poise to moving its way to economy prosperity or development country status by 2020.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Airline and airport
In the news that US having turning into production growth of its oil in 30 years through its shale gas and oil, and the trend is likely to speed up in the next 10 to 20 years, many are expecting US to extract as many oil as possible to reduce reliance on middle east oil. In the result will be shifting production of oil in the world from middle east to US. But according to news, middle east has committed huge spending from its oil export income in the future. Thus overproduction that might cause from US and middle east because of their own reason may spark oil price war that bring the price down and keep the oil price low in the coming years.
This may be fare well for airline industry, especially in the Far East region as middle income group expand, which will directly boost tourism. While Airline may turn to become a profitable and attractive business if oil price down and economy in far east emerging country grow in consumption, airport will be a safer bet as there will not be many competitor around.
This may be fare well for airline industry, especially in the Far East region as middle income group expand, which will directly boost tourism. While Airline may turn to become a profitable and attractive business if oil price down and economy in far east emerging country grow in consumption, airport will be a safer bet as there will not be many competitor around.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Malaysia stock market Biggest bet
The biggest bet for Malaysia stock market is the general election which will be held early next year whether there will be a change of government. It probably will cause the stock market to down another 20 percent from now if government change and depress for quite some time. And stock market probably will rally if no change of government happen.
Other external global turmoil? They probably will be dragged on to later, Not Malaysia stock market major concern now.
Other external global turmoil? They probably will be dragged on to later, Not Malaysia stock market major concern now.
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