The double earning risk of commodity base company

Agriculture business's principal asset is biological asset. Mining business's principal asset is the reserve of mining asset.

The recent implementation of fair value valuation has double the earning volatility of those 2 type of businesses. Those businesses are commodity base business. Their revenue depend on commodity price. The fair value accounting require them to value their asset in current market value. And the valuation method used is often present value of future benefit, which depend on the prediction of future commodity price.

As there is no possibility to predict the volatility, or the high and low of the commodity price, valuation often base on the historical trend of the commodity price. If, when the valuation is made, the trend is on the up trend and has been on the up trend for 10 years, the valuation will be excessive. If, when the valuation is made, just after the commodity price crash, everybody has been so pessimistic, although past few years the trend has been consistently on the uptrend, you can imagine the valuation will be very low. Everybody will accept the fact that commodity price trend will be on the down trend going forward or stagnant at low level at best.

When commodity price keep going up, the revenue will go up, causing the earning to go up. Besides, the management will revalue their asset following the new prediction of future price trend. The higher asset value will show higher earning in that particular year. So overall, the revenue and revaluing of asset will drive up earning in twin booster. Vice versa, the reversing of commodity price will cause earning drop in twin booster too.

When to revalue the asset require judgement from the management. If the management want the earning to look good, they will try to time the market and revalue the asset at the highest price of commodity, avoid revalue asset at the bottom price of commodity. If the management is responsible, they will have to always think of revalue the asset according to the long term trend of the commodity price.

In this sense, I think this fair value accounting opened a room for earning manipulation for irresponsible management.

What the nature teach me

The nature can teach us everything we want to know.

In this evening, when I was cycling down a hill, I tried to keep my bicycle tyre on the narrow white line on the road. It was so difficult initially when I kept my head down concentrate on the white line in front of me. I found the line is not very straight plus my speed is so fast that it is almost impossible to stay on the white line for long.

After a while, I kept my head up and put my eyesight on the white line far ahead. I immediate found my target became stable, and when I cycle follow my new target, I can easily put my bicycle tyre stay on the narrow white line.

The lesson I learn is we should be far sighted and set our long term big goal and move towards it. Don't focus on the unpredictable short term obstacles until forget about our long term big goal.

Investment wise, focus on long term investment, don't focus on short term trading.

We are all being trapped inside economy world model with no escape

Economy is people behaviour, where all people want to get the best thing selfishly and satisfied for that. It can be viewed as a model of the world. You can also view this world as a religious world model where people give and receive, and where people do good will be repaid with good, do bad will be repaid in bad. If you are not repaid now, not because the model is wrong, but just the time not right yet. You can also view this world as a natural gift world model, where everything is created by god and we should appreciate the nature, have a peaceful mind.

But when I accessed into economy world model, I found that I can hardly switch back to natural gift world model, where you view tree as tree, and buy thing just because you want it. I think so much about the reason behind and how things interconnect. There are always so much things lingering in my head and it is hard to have peace.

I thought about why bus fare is charge like that, I thought about why supermarket grocery pricing is different from place to place, how much is the profit and cost structure behind each goods, how is every supply chain part earn their profit, and which part of the supply chain earn the most and why, how is a change in price affect others, why things happen and how it affect others.

Although a lot of questions still remain mystery to me, but until now the most furious thing I found is every seller will always non stop thinking about how to make the most profit from the consumer by studying the consumer behaviour and try to make fool of the consumer. They made us their experiment mouse when we walk into their shop. Although most consumer are smart and will shop for things they feel worth. But seller always making illusion to buyer that the thing they sell is worth more than its price. Consumer never know they always pay the highest possible price, consumer never know they are always led by some illusion or force created by the seller to pay for a much higher price version of thing with a little negligible thing/value added on, every time, unconsciously.

The most furious thing is most consumer never know they are being trapped inside the economy model played by the seller, the government, the ruler. They have far more information that we consumer do. Even if you know, there is no escape.

Not in helm

Some people talk talk talk, but no action taken
Some people listen listen listen, but no action taken
Some people watch watch watch, but do nothing.
They are either giving without taking any responsibility or just receive receive receive to pass their time.

How can they don't know how to action if they know all the knowledge?

I think may be because
Action need energy, need passion, need courage, need to make changes
Action will fail you before succeed you.
Action force you to think deeper.
But action can only be found in explorer, enterpreneur, leader, but they are not......