In the year end, everybody go holiday. Activity reduced including stock market. Everybody prefer to pass this year with a relax mood after a stressful 2012 market. So many things had happened like the survival series of Europe, elections of so many countries. Those events had altered my portfolio mix of stock significantly. At glance my portfolio look messy, seems like no significant bet on any sector. I think hard but don't know what to bet and what to expect going into 2013. Is it oil and gas, transportation, oil palm, electronic sector, property, Islamic insurance, retail? Which one should I bet on giving the most return in 2013?
So I gave out thinking and cruise through 2013 and relax with empty thought.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
Which story do you prefer?
1st:
The world is in a long term volatile state. The global imbalance is getting more serious each day as US tries to depreciate their currency but in China and other part of the world keep buying the US debt to keep their currency low. US people has no chance to correct their spending habit because there is so much liquidity or cheap money for them. Further more, China is making its reform too slowly and muddling through because of new leadership conservatism. As the structural problem go on, the world will not find grow as US and Europe continue to drag down the whole economy. The world will facing another shock, time by time, and the next should not be too far away.
2nd:
The stagnant and possibility of shock from the economy of the US and Europe, cause the people in US and Europe to more depress. Less people is born there and more is migrating to Asia causing population to shrink. With this, consumption sink. With the flood of migration to Asia, structural unemployment rise in Asia causing temporary chaos. US and Europe major demographic change cause the economy to in recession for years and years, may be 5 years or more (the period can be longer than you think). Finally because of smaller economy and Asia rise, the economy size balance between US, EUrope and Asia become more balance and even. From then on, the world economy grow resume.
3rd:
Nothing major change from US and Europe, the US continue to print money out of economy dire strait but nothing major fundamental improvement. The world is in chaos time to time, but China will be doing steady just like never been harm by asia financial crisis or early 90s bank crisis in US. It is because of China successful reform of encourage their people to consume more rather than save. South east asia have ever stronger balance sheet and reserve suffer less and lesser impact from the chaos from the west each time. Their reliance on export shifted bit by bit to China protected by China consumption and have less and less impact from the west. In fact, because of the consumption from China, and southeast asia, Asia region continue to prosper despite the stagnant of US and Europe economy.
4th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, Malaysia is having its first in its history of political control party change since its independence. The country is in complete chaos again and protest is rage. Street demonstration and violent is hunting and seriously hurt the economy. The losing side of the supporter is to be said to organised the protest and violent. Business is interrupted, every major project and development plan is suspended for review. Because of that, the economy slipped into recession and short term foreign fund seeking every single way to leave the country further exacerbate the problem. KLCI stock market plunge 50% to 800 range. Although the in charge political party assure of the future, lack of experience and outside confidence cause the recovery process to be slow.
5th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, Malaysia is having a change of political parties in its first time since independence, the opposition party agree to continue every current running project and make review at the back operation and make changes step by step slowly to avoid any drastic shock. This fare well for foreign investor confidence and they believe Malaysia is heading to a more transparent and less corruption country. Although there is protest from the losing party supporter and member, the chaos is under control to be not interrupt the business activity. Instead of coming down, the stock market shoot up to record high.
6th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, the reigning political party continue their reign. Whether its by majority or not, the stock market react dully. Whatever the outcome, the stock market follow the region stock market performance. No doubt the long term economy prospect will be promising because of the economic transformation plan initiate by the prime minister. Malaysia which has better planning and execution administration now is poise to moving its way to economy prosperity or development country status by 2020.
The world is in a long term volatile state. The global imbalance is getting more serious each day as US tries to depreciate their currency but in China and other part of the world keep buying the US debt to keep their currency low. US people has no chance to correct their spending habit because there is so much liquidity or cheap money for them. Further more, China is making its reform too slowly and muddling through because of new leadership conservatism. As the structural problem go on, the world will not find grow as US and Europe continue to drag down the whole economy. The world will facing another shock, time by time, and the next should not be too far away.
2nd:
The stagnant and possibility of shock from the economy of the US and Europe, cause the people in US and Europe to more depress. Less people is born there and more is migrating to Asia causing population to shrink. With this, consumption sink. With the flood of migration to Asia, structural unemployment rise in Asia causing temporary chaos. US and Europe major demographic change cause the economy to in recession for years and years, may be 5 years or more (the period can be longer than you think). Finally because of smaller economy and Asia rise, the economy size balance between US, EUrope and Asia become more balance and even. From then on, the world economy grow resume.
3rd:
Nothing major change from US and Europe, the US continue to print money out of economy dire strait but nothing major fundamental improvement. The world is in chaos time to time, but China will be doing steady just like never been harm by asia financial crisis or early 90s bank crisis in US. It is because of China successful reform of encourage their people to consume more rather than save. South east asia have ever stronger balance sheet and reserve suffer less and lesser impact from the chaos from the west each time. Their reliance on export shifted bit by bit to China protected by China consumption and have less and less impact from the west. In fact, because of the consumption from China, and southeast asia, Asia region continue to prosper despite the stagnant of US and Europe economy.
4th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, Malaysia is having its first in its history of political control party change since its independence. The country is in complete chaos again and protest is rage. Street demonstration and violent is hunting and seriously hurt the economy. The losing side of the supporter is to be said to organised the protest and violent. Business is interrupted, every major project and development plan is suspended for review. Because of that, the economy slipped into recession and short term foreign fund seeking every single way to leave the country further exacerbate the problem. KLCI stock market plunge 50% to 800 range. Although the in charge political party assure of the future, lack of experience and outside confidence cause the recovery process to be slow.
5th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, Malaysia is having a change of political parties in its first time since independence, the opposition party agree to continue every current running project and make review at the back operation and make changes step by step slowly to avoid any drastic shock. This fare well for foreign investor confidence and they believe Malaysia is heading to a more transparent and less corruption country. Although there is protest from the losing party supporter and member, the chaos is under control to be not interrupt the business activity. Instead of coming down, the stock market shoot up to record high.
6th:
In Malaysia next general election held early next year, the reigning political party continue their reign. Whether its by majority or not, the stock market react dully. Whatever the outcome, the stock market follow the region stock market performance. No doubt the long term economy prospect will be promising because of the economic transformation plan initiate by the prime minister. Malaysia which has better planning and execution administration now is poise to moving its way to economy prosperity or development country status by 2020.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Airline and airport
In the news that US having turning into production growth of its oil in 30 years through its shale gas and oil, and the trend is likely to speed up in the next 10 to 20 years, many are expecting US to extract as many oil as possible to reduce reliance on middle east oil. In the result will be shifting production of oil in the world from middle east to US. But according to news, middle east has committed huge spending from its oil export income in the future. Thus overproduction that might cause from US and middle east because of their own reason may spark oil price war that bring the price down and keep the oil price low in the coming years.
This may be fare well for airline industry, especially in the Far East region as middle income group expand, which will directly boost tourism. While Airline may turn to become a profitable and attractive business if oil price down and economy in far east emerging country grow in consumption, airport will be a safer bet as there will not be many competitor around.
This may be fare well for airline industry, especially in the Far East region as middle income group expand, which will directly boost tourism. While Airline may turn to become a profitable and attractive business if oil price down and economy in far east emerging country grow in consumption, airport will be a safer bet as there will not be many competitor around.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Malaysia stock market Biggest bet
The biggest bet for Malaysia stock market is the general election which will be held early next year whether there will be a change of government. It probably will cause the stock market to down another 20 percent from now if government change and depress for quite some time. And stock market probably will rally if no change of government happen.
Other external global turmoil? They probably will be dragged on to later, Not Malaysia stock market major concern now.
Other external global turmoil? They probably will be dragged on to later, Not Malaysia stock market major concern now.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Temporary deviate from well diversified portfolio
When building portfolio, it is ok to deviate temporary from target allocation to pursue for attractive and undervalued stock. This temporary deviation may make the portfolio looks concentrate and undiversified. But if the other stock is fully valued or not cheap enough and this stock is so undervalue and attractive, it will be stupid not to buy more just because we want to keep our portfolio in a well diversified manner. Those deviation shall be adjusted back later by continuing inflow of investment or rebalancing.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
My first world vision trip
I am following world vision trip to Thailand Praiburng for child sponsor visit tomorrow. It will be a 4 day trip. I will be the official photographer. Never being official photographer, i am nervous and hopefully things will go well for me.
Don't know how the trip will be turn out, I am excited, for the people I will be met, scenery, things I see, experience, child sponsor and family, etc. I hope I will excited enough to let people feel my excitement and not feel the coldest side of me.
Don't know how the trip will be turn out, I am excited, for the people I will be met, scenery, things I see, experience, child sponsor and family, etc. I hope I will excited enough to let people feel my excitement and not feel the coldest side of me.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
快，准，狠
想要快速的成功，常常是必须孤注一掷的。
除了眼光的独到，知识了解一定要够，才有七分的把握，剩余的就要凭运气了。
分散虽然分散了风险，却不专注，给人不踏实的感觉。
太多了，难免顾此失彼，当心陷入一事无成的田地。
除了眼光的独到，知识了解一定要够，才有七分的把握，剩余的就要凭运气了。
分散虽然分散了风险，却不专注，给人不踏实的感觉。
太多了，难免顾此失彼，当心陷入一事无成的田地。
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Blinded / Outdated
We need to always find cheaper and more effective solution. Sometimes we just lazy to do so, or no time? We stick to one product and thought it is the best forever. With the promotion and advertisement, we thought the product continue to be the best. But we don't realised that there are other product coming up competing at a much cheaper and effective way. In some way, we have been blinded.
I want to take an example of unit trust. Because I have been satisfied with my current agent, I don't think of finding other alternative agent or alternative unit trust company. Plus, I am naturally reluctant of listening to other sales man sell their unit trust. It will be more possible for me to listen to my friend. But a lot of time I am stubborn with my own decision and thought my choice of agent and company will serve me best. I have been blinded. Because I stop finding other alternative.
May be we can think of Sony? or may be Apple because Samsung is catching up? Or may be a good example of Intel and Microsoft which both willing to take big action to innovate and change their company direction to adapt to the Pad/mobile generation?
Things changed fast these days. A competitive product today may not be competitive product tomorrow. Unless the company keep humble and innovate to keep their leading position, even a top brand company can be replaced by second or third lier company.
I want to take an example of unit trust. Because I have been satisfied with my current agent, I don't think of finding other alternative agent or alternative unit trust company. Plus, I am naturally reluctant of listening to other sales man sell their unit trust. It will be more possible for me to listen to my friend. But a lot of time I am stubborn with my own decision and thought my choice of agent and company will serve me best. I have been blinded. Because I stop finding other alternative.
May be we can think of Sony? or may be Apple because Samsung is catching up? Or may be a good example of Intel and Microsoft which both willing to take big action to innovate and change their company direction to adapt to the Pad/mobile generation?
Things changed fast these days. A competitive product today may not be competitive product tomorrow. Unless the company keep humble and innovate to keep their leading position, even a top brand company can be replaced by second or third lier company.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Optimistic
Being a person, we need to be optimistic and hopeful about our future. The key word is our future, not the surrounding future. No matter how other people think of the future, or how other people think of your future, it is none of your business. You have to find your future and find opportunity to your future, and there is plenty of options around. You have to walk out a road.
Being an investor, optimistic is the most important character. No matter how bad the economy, no matter how bad your own country is, there is always a lot opportunities. There is a lot of opportunities where other people overlook, and a lot of opportunities less explored. What you need to have is you have to look a head a little far. You have to be able to see other investor/trader don't see. This mean that you have to always make prediction base on current trend and development, which is overlook by most people, and take opportunity/action on your prediction.
This is not so difficult actually. A lot of investors/traders are too afraid of following their own sense. They are comfortable following the crowd, which form the market basically. I will explain further below about the market.
Market is operate in a reasonably efficient environment where all the prices always reflect the currently available information. Market participant trade everyday to reflect their expectation of the value base on information publicly disclose. Their value discount in pessimistic market and overvalue in optimistic market. The important point is market trade on information disclose. The share price move base on information disclose. But long term investor don't trade often. Only short term trader trade often. Opportunistic investor trade often. For an efficient market, trading is the most important thing. If the market is dominated by long term investor who trade very seldom, the market will not be efficient. In this sense, long term investors are minority group. This group of people has a lot of opportunity to outperform the market. They are the odd.
Of course, you need to have the confident to your prediction, and bet. Again, your prediction must be overlook by the market.
Don't be affected by the market. Make your own decision and be really optimistic because of your prediction and bet. That is what optimistic is all about.
Being an investor, optimistic is the most important character. No matter how bad the economy, no matter how bad your own country is, there is always a lot opportunities. There is a lot of opportunities where other people overlook, and a lot of opportunities less explored. What you need to have is you have to look a head a little far. You have to be able to see other investor/trader don't see. This mean that you have to always make prediction base on current trend and development, which is overlook by most people, and take opportunity/action on your prediction.
This is not so difficult actually. A lot of investors/traders are too afraid of following their own sense. They are comfortable following the crowd, which form the market basically. I will explain further below about the market.
Market is operate in a reasonably efficient environment where all the prices always reflect the currently available information. Market participant trade everyday to reflect their expectation of the value base on information publicly disclose. Their value discount in pessimistic market and overvalue in optimistic market. The important point is market trade on information disclose. The share price move base on information disclose. But long term investor don't trade often. Only short term trader trade often. Opportunistic investor trade often. For an efficient market, trading is the most important thing. If the market is dominated by long term investor who trade very seldom, the market will not be efficient. In this sense, long term investors are minority group. This group of people has a lot of opportunity to outperform the market. They are the odd.
Of course, you need to have the confident to your prediction, and bet. Again, your prediction must be overlook by the market.
Don't be affected by the market. Make your own decision and be really optimistic because of your prediction and bet. That is what optimistic is all about.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Vulnerability side of high dividend paying company's stock
In this low interest rate environment, it is normal for people chasing for higher yield investment instrument with comparative lower risk.
In this situation, mature industry which pay high dividend appear attractive. The business is stable and has lower risk. I think it is one of the main factor for their high valuation.
When people heavily benchmark stock dividend yield to risk free rate, interest rate risk become an important factor. Watch out when the interest rate start to rise. When that happen, those high dividend paying company's stocks will suddenly become vulnerable.
In this situation, mature industry which pay high dividend appear attractive. The business is stable and has lower risk. I think it is one of the main factor for their high valuation.
When people heavily benchmark stock dividend yield to risk free rate, interest rate risk become an important factor. Watch out when the interest rate start to rise. When that happen, those high dividend paying company's stocks will suddenly become vulnerable.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
November 2012
This November is expected to be exciting. America presidential election and China change of leadership. The 2 biggest economies in the world. Any policy change will definitely affect the world. Even I suspect there might not be any major change in policy in near term, market shall view it as a theme to speculate, to be optimistic or pessimistic about.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Rubbish Comment
Recently I get a lot of comments from anonymous. Those comments are not relevant but only to seduce you to visit their link. This is either advertisement or wanted to earn money by pay per click or pay per view.
I am strictly not interested in posting the comment and hope that those "advertisers" to get away from my website. I only appreciate genuine reader. Even if there is none, I am happy to continue to post article, just for my leisure and note of my thinking.
Thank you very much!
I am strictly not interested in posting the comment and hope that those "advertisers" to get away from my website. I only appreciate genuine reader. Even if there is none, I am happy to continue to post article, just for my leisure and note of my thinking.
Thank you very much!
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Employer VS employee
In below article, capitalist, employer and entrepreneur are use interchangeably.
Capitalist put their money on stake, searching for the maximum return. Their money at stake may be loss entirely, even face bankruptcy. Their venture may prove successful and earn enormously. But according to statistic, 1 in 10 venture will survive, much lesser for the successful venture. Out of the successful one, most are started by seasonal experience entrepreneur.
That is why most of us are employee, not employer. That is why most of us choose to save money in fixed deposit because most of us want safety life and avoid risk. We are trained in our education (Malaysia) to become a good employee. Yet we always complain about the unfairness of employer and employee, complaining employee are doing most of the work and getting all the blame, while boss (entrepreneur) driving Mercedes benz, BMW, getting high paid, and seems relax. We complain about the unfairness treatment by government between the rich (successful entrepreneur) and the middle and low income people (employee).
Government likes entrepreneur because they create jobs, bring tax revenue to government, help boasting economy. Without them, we don't even have job. And entrepreneur is not relax, a lot of entrepreneur has heart problem because of the high pressure to sustain their business. They need to make sure the company continue to earn income, or they will lose money, or even bankrupt. They have to pay employee salary even though the company turn into losses because of bad economy or difficult time in company. They build the company, setup "high antenna" to sense any headwind that might affect the company business, always think of how to do thing the better way so that the company will not get obsolete. For them, all is about money, how to get the best use of money, how to increase productivity of their employee with the lowest possible pay, etc.
For employee, we need to appreciate because we don't have to worry too much about our month end salary pay. If you are still not happy, and if you think it's easy to replace your employer, please take out money to start your own company. if you are not willing to risk your money, please don't complain too much. If your salary is comparably low, you always have the chance to go to other company. Remember, this is a competitive world, you will be paid what you got: the talent you got and the gut you got.
Capitalist put their money on stake, searching for the maximum return. Their money at stake may be loss entirely, even face bankruptcy. Their venture may prove successful and earn enormously. But according to statistic, 1 in 10 venture will survive, much lesser for the successful venture. Out of the successful one, most are started by seasonal experience entrepreneur.
That is why most of us are employee, not employer. That is why most of us choose to save money in fixed deposit because most of us want safety life and avoid risk. We are trained in our education (Malaysia) to become a good employee. Yet we always complain about the unfairness of employer and employee, complaining employee are doing most of the work and getting all the blame, while boss (entrepreneur) driving Mercedes benz, BMW, getting high paid, and seems relax. We complain about the unfairness treatment by government between the rich (successful entrepreneur) and the middle and low income people (employee).
Government likes entrepreneur because they create jobs, bring tax revenue to government, help boasting economy. Without them, we don't even have job. And entrepreneur is not relax, a lot of entrepreneur has heart problem because of the high pressure to sustain their business. They need to make sure the company continue to earn income, or they will lose money, or even bankrupt. They have to pay employee salary even though the company turn into losses because of bad economy or difficult time in company. They build the company, setup "high antenna" to sense any headwind that might affect the company business, always think of how to do thing the better way so that the company will not get obsolete. For them, all is about money, how to get the best use of money, how to increase productivity of their employee with the lowest possible pay, etc.
For employee, we need to appreciate because we don't have to worry too much about our month end salary pay. If you are still not happy, and if you think it's easy to replace your employer, please take out money to start your own company. if you are not willing to risk your money, please don't complain too much. If your salary is comparably low, you always have the chance to go to other company. Remember, this is a competitive world, you will be paid what you got: the talent you got and the gut you got.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Beware of scam 2
In the ancient time, when there is too much scam complaints in the street, the emperor might just choose one and raid it. The people involve in making the scam get punished heavily, sometimes even without concrete evidence, just because the pressure to solve the problem is so high, among people, among powerful people, among the politician or other opposition.
If there is no concrete evidence, the person get punished may be just unlucky, or having relationship problem with emperor or all the powerful people (lost out politically).
After the raid, victim get hurt with confuse, anger, asking "Why me?" question but really nothing can be done. They will learned lesson that there is no get rich scheme in the world. But other people? May be the raid will scare people away from get rich scheme, but most of the time, they just felt sorry for the victim and may be laugh at their stupidity. They continue to involve in new get rich scheme that they thought is a proper investment scheme, and bluff about how quick the scheme can make money all around.
If there is no concrete evidence, the person get punished may be just unlucky, or having relationship problem with emperor or all the powerful people (lost out politically).
After the raid, victim get hurt with confuse, anger, asking "Why me?" question but really nothing can be done. They will learned lesson that there is no get rich scheme in the world. But other people? May be the raid will scare people away from get rich scheme, but most of the time, they just felt sorry for the victim and may be laugh at their stupidity. They continue to involve in new get rich scheme that they thought is a proper investment scheme, and bluff about how quick the scheme can make money all around.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
The double earning risk of commodity base company
Agriculture business's principal asset is biological asset. Mining business's principal asset is the reserve of mining asset.
The recent implementation of fair value valuation has double the earning volatility of those 2 type of businesses. Those businesses are commodity base business. Their revenue depend on commodity price. The fair value accounting require them to value their asset in current market value. And the valuation method used is often present value of future benefit, which depend on the prediction of future commodity price.
As there is no possibility to predict the volatility, or the high and low of the commodity price, valuation often base on the historical trend of the commodity price. If, when the valuation is made, the trend is on the up trend and has been on the up trend for 10 years, the valuation will be excessive. If, when the valuation is made, just after the commodity price crash, everybody has been so pessimistic, although past few years the trend has been consistently on the uptrend, you can imagine the valuation will be very low. Everybody will accept the fact that commodity price trend will be on the down trend going forward or stagnant at low level at best.
When commodity price keep going up, the revenue will go up, causing the earning to go up. Besides, the management will revalue their asset following the new prediction of future price trend. The higher asset value will show higher earning in that particular year. So overall, the revenue and revaluing of asset will drive up earning in twin booster. Vice versa, the reversing of commodity price will cause earning drop in twin booster too.
When to revalue the asset require judgement from the management. If the management want the earning to look good, they will try to time the market and revalue the asset at the highest price of commodity, avoid revalue asset at the bottom price of commodity. If the management is responsible, they will have to always think of revalue the asset according to the long term trend of the commodity price.
In this sense, I think this fair value accounting opened a room for earning manipulation for irresponsible management.
The recent implementation of fair value valuation has double the earning volatility of those 2 type of businesses. Those businesses are commodity base business. Their revenue depend on commodity price. The fair value accounting require them to value their asset in current market value. And the valuation method used is often present value of future benefit, which depend on the prediction of future commodity price.
As there is no possibility to predict the volatility, or the high and low of the commodity price, valuation often base on the historical trend of the commodity price. If, when the valuation is made, the trend is on the up trend and has been on the up trend for 10 years, the valuation will be excessive. If, when the valuation is made, just after the commodity price crash, everybody has been so pessimistic, although past few years the trend has been consistently on the uptrend, you can imagine the valuation will be very low. Everybody will accept the fact that commodity price trend will be on the down trend going forward or stagnant at low level at best.
When commodity price keep going up, the revenue will go up, causing the earning to go up. Besides, the management will revalue their asset following the new prediction of future price trend. The higher asset value will show higher earning in that particular year. So overall, the revenue and revaluing of asset will drive up earning in twin booster. Vice versa, the reversing of commodity price will cause earning drop in twin booster too.
When to revalue the asset require judgement from the management. If the management want the earning to look good, they will try to time the market and revalue the asset at the highest price of commodity, avoid revalue asset at the bottom price of commodity. If the management is responsible, they will have to always think of revalue the asset according to the long term trend of the commodity price.
In this sense, I think this fair value accounting opened a room for earning manipulation for irresponsible management.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
What the nature teach me
The nature can teach us everything we want to know.
In this evening, when I was cycling down a hill, I tried to keep my bicycle tyre on the narrow white line on the road. It was so difficult initially when I kept my head down concentrate on the white line in front of me. I found the line is not very straight plus my speed is so fast that it is almost impossible to stay on the white line for long.
After a while, I kept my head up and put my eyesight on the white line far ahead. I immediate found my target became stable, and when I cycle follow my new target, I can easily put my bicycle tyre stay on the narrow white line.
The lesson I learn is we should be far sighted and set our long term big goal and move towards it. Don't focus on the unpredictable short term obstacles until forget about our long term big goal.
Investment wise, focus on long term investment, don't focus on short term trading.
In this evening, when I was cycling down a hill, I tried to keep my bicycle tyre on the narrow white line on the road. It was so difficult initially when I kept my head down concentrate on the white line in front of me. I found the line is not very straight plus my speed is so fast that it is almost impossible to stay on the white line for long.
After a while, I kept my head up and put my eyesight on the white line far ahead. I immediate found my target became stable, and when I cycle follow my new target, I can easily put my bicycle tyre stay on the narrow white line.
The lesson I learn is we should be far sighted and set our long term big goal and move towards it. Don't focus on the unpredictable short term obstacles until forget about our long term big goal.
Investment wise, focus on long term investment, don't focus on short term trading.
Sunday, September 9, 2012
We are all being trapped inside economy world model with no escape
Economy is people behaviour, where all people want to get the best thing selfishly and satisfied for that. It can be viewed as a model of the world. You can also view this world as a religious world model where people give and receive, and where people do good will be repaid with good, do bad will be repaid in bad. If you are not repaid now, not because the model is wrong, but just the time not right yet. You can also view this world as a natural gift world model, where everything is created by god and we should appreciate the nature, have a peaceful mind.
But when I accessed into economy world model, I found that I can hardly switch back to natural gift world model, where you view tree as tree, and buy thing just because you want it. I think so much about the reason behind and how things interconnect. There are always so much things lingering in my head and it is hard to have peace.
I thought about why bus fare is charge like that, I thought about why supermarket grocery pricing is different from place to place, how much is the profit and cost structure behind each goods, how is every supply chain part earn their profit, and which part of the supply chain earn the most and why, how is a change in price affect others, why things happen and how it affect others.
Although a lot of questions still remain mystery to me, but until now the most furious thing I found is every seller will always non stop thinking about how to make the most profit from the consumer by studying the consumer behaviour and try to make fool of the consumer. They made us their experiment mouse when we walk into their shop. Although most consumer are smart and will shop for things they feel worth. But seller always making illusion to buyer that the thing they sell is worth more than its price. Consumer never know they always pay the highest possible price, consumer never know they are always led by some illusion or force created by the seller to pay for a much higher price version of thing with a little negligible thing/value added on, every time, unconsciously.
The most furious thing is most consumer never know they are being trapped inside the economy model played by the seller, the government, the ruler. They have far more information that we consumer do. Even if you know, there is no escape.
But when I accessed into economy world model, I found that I can hardly switch back to natural gift world model, where you view tree as tree, and buy thing just because you want it. I think so much about the reason behind and how things interconnect. There are always so much things lingering in my head and it is hard to have peace.
I thought about why bus fare is charge like that, I thought about why supermarket grocery pricing is different from place to place, how much is the profit and cost structure behind each goods, how is every supply chain part earn their profit, and which part of the supply chain earn the most and why, how is a change in price affect others, why things happen and how it affect others.
Although a lot of questions still remain mystery to me, but until now the most furious thing I found is every seller will always non stop thinking about how to make the most profit from the consumer by studying the consumer behaviour and try to make fool of the consumer. They made us their experiment mouse when we walk into their shop. Although most consumer are smart and will shop for things they feel worth. But seller always making illusion to buyer that the thing they sell is worth more than its price. Consumer never know they always pay the highest possible price, consumer never know they are always led by some illusion or force created by the seller to pay for a much higher price version of thing with a little negligible thing/value added on, every time, unconsciously.
The most furious thing is most consumer never know they are being trapped inside the economy model played by the seller, the government, the ruler. They have far more information that we consumer do. Even if you know, there is no escape.
Monday, September 3, 2012
Not in helm
Some people talk talk talk, but no action taken
Some people listen listen listen, but no action taken
Some people watch watch watch, but do nothing.
They are either giving without taking any responsibility or just receive receive receive to pass their time.
How can they don't know how to action if they know all the knowledge?
I think may be because
Action need energy, need passion, need courage, need to make changes
Action will fail you before succeed you.
Action force you to think deeper.
But action can only be found in explorer, enterpreneur, leader, but they are not......
Some people listen listen listen, but no action taken
Some people watch watch watch, but do nothing.
They are either giving without taking any responsibility or just receive receive receive to pass their time.
How can they don't know how to action if they know all the knowledge?
I think may be because
Action need energy, need passion, need courage, need to make changes
Action will fail you before succeed you.
Action force you to think deeper.
But action can only be found in explorer, enterpreneur, leader, but they are not......
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
随笔
我投资，不代表我是个懂规划，为将来安逸深谋远虑的人。
我投资，仅仅是因为我喜欢。
我尽可能的投资，尽可能的想找资源，尽可能的找新项目。
也不知道这东西有没有尽头，到头来会为我带来些什么。
我只是向前走，顺便撒些什么东西给有缘人。
我投资，仅仅是因为我喜欢。
我尽可能的投资，尽可能的想找资源，尽可能的找新项目。
也不知道这东西有没有尽头，到头来会为我带来些什么。
我只是向前走，顺便撒些什么东西给有缘人。
Friday, August 17, 2012
Money Magnet
One of the top powerful money magnet in the world belong to Warren Buffet, and his magnet is always getting bigger and bigger, stronger and stronger. It almost seems that all the extra printed money, idle money or not well utilised money will be uncontrollably sucked by his magnet into his pocket. His secret of such a strong powerful magnet is he use almost all the money sucked to him to build the magnet, left himself just enough to live.
He has this habit since he was a little child. But then his magnet was similar with all his friends similar age with him. All of them were very small, or we can say that it can hardly be seen or felt. After he read a book how to become a millionaire, he learned the ways to build the magnet. As time passed, his magnet grow stronger with the pace faster than he can imagine. Some by his genius, more by his hard work, he surpassed millionaire target in his 20s. He was obsessed by his higher and higher target set by himself, which is to roll the magnet into bigger and bigger size. In the process, he keep learning, keep thinking, learning, and finally become expert in building money magnet.
From the story, I realised that it is not about how strong the magnet one build that made one so rich, but It is how big the magnet made one so rich. Strong magnet is like the intelligent in dealing with money, how big the magnet is about how deep the money pocket is. Bigger magnet, although it is weaker, it easily can suck in more money than a strong magnet. It is because there is limit on the wisdom of a people, but no limit on the size of a magnet. It is also because bigger magnet is easier to be seen and easier to locate money. So our main target should be to build a big magnet, as time goes by, improve our financial knowledge to ultimately strengthen our magnet.
A big size of money magnet need time to build, just as a Rome is not built in a day. So, build money magnet while young/small, if you haven't start, you should build it now!
Note: Warren buffet has strong and big magnet, he has ultimate money magnet.
He has this habit since he was a little child. But then his magnet was similar with all his friends similar age with him. All of them were very small, or we can say that it can hardly be seen or felt. After he read a book how to become a millionaire, he learned the ways to build the magnet. As time passed, his magnet grow stronger with the pace faster than he can imagine. Some by his genius, more by his hard work, he surpassed millionaire target in his 20s. He was obsessed by his higher and higher target set by himself, which is to roll the magnet into bigger and bigger size. In the process, he keep learning, keep thinking, learning, and finally become expert in building money magnet.
From the story, I realised that it is not about how strong the magnet one build that made one so rich, but It is how big the magnet made one so rich. Strong magnet is like the intelligent in dealing with money, how big the magnet is about how deep the money pocket is. Bigger magnet, although it is weaker, it easily can suck in more money than a strong magnet. It is because there is limit on the wisdom of a people, but no limit on the size of a magnet. It is also because bigger magnet is easier to be seen and easier to locate money. So our main target should be to build a big magnet, as time goes by, improve our financial knowledge to ultimately strengthen our magnet.
A big size of money magnet need time to build, just as a Rome is not built in a day. So, build money magnet while young/small, if you haven't start, you should build it now!
Note: Warren buffet has strong and big magnet, he has ultimate money magnet.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
TDM berhad
A mid size growing oil palm plantation company, combine with private healthcare business, provide an excellent business diversification since oil palm plantation is a cyclical business and hospital operation is a non cyclical business. Oil palm plantation is affected by season and nature and it's earning fluctuated wildly throughout the year, while the number of patient visiting hospital is more or less very stable. These 2 businesses complement each other by smoothing out the earning fluctuation of the company. In addition, these 2 sectors are among the most promising sectors in this decade.
The rising population and reducing poverty in India and China, mainly, provide sustainable increasing demand for oil palm. Moreover, the risk of planting is higher now with the constant uncertain weather condition recently. Any bad weather will destroy the crops and reduce the supply, thus drive up the price of the crops. This risk will ensure the crop's price remain high. For healthcare industry, the population in southeast Asia is growing older, combine with the increase of population, increase of disposable income, increase of social net about healthcare, increase of awareness of healthcare as their education level increase, all of these poise well for healthcare industry in the region.
TDM, with the similar league in term of plantation land and growing prospect with other mid size plantation companies like IJM plantation, Ta Ann, TH plantation, only priced at 7 times earning whereas its competitor are all priced within the range of 10 to 15 times earning. Viewing also healthcare industry price to earning ratio of 20 to 30 times in average, although healthcare only contribute 10 to 15% of TDM's earning now, a combine price earning ratio of 7 times of TDM is ridiculously low in my view. In future, the management can always adjust the mix of the 2 businesses depending of the prospect of each sector. When a desireable mix is achieve in future, I believe the full value of the company will be unlocked.
Although TDM is a Terrenganu state own company, and people may say it contains political risk, it's successful transformation in recent years has proved the ability of its management of steering the company in correct growing path. I believe prospect is bright for TDM in years to come. And the recent plunge of earning and plunge of share price present a very good entry point and hefty margin of safety, to participate in the growth story of TDM.
NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees. I may already have positions in the above mentioned counter. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
The rising population and reducing poverty in India and China, mainly, provide sustainable increasing demand for oil palm. Moreover, the risk of planting is higher now with the constant uncertain weather condition recently. Any bad weather will destroy the crops and reduce the supply, thus drive up the price of the crops. This risk will ensure the crop's price remain high. For healthcare industry, the population in southeast Asia is growing older, combine with the increase of population, increase of disposable income, increase of social net about healthcare, increase of awareness of healthcare as their education level increase, all of these poise well for healthcare industry in the region.
TDM, with the similar league in term of plantation land and growing prospect with other mid size plantation companies like IJM plantation, Ta Ann, TH plantation, only priced at 7 times earning whereas its competitor are all priced within the range of 10 to 15 times earning. Viewing also healthcare industry price to earning ratio of 20 to 30 times in average, although healthcare only contribute 10 to 15% of TDM's earning now, a combine price earning ratio of 7 times of TDM is ridiculously low in my view. In future, the management can always adjust the mix of the 2 businesses depending of the prospect of each sector. When a desireable mix is achieve in future, I believe the full value of the company will be unlocked.
Although TDM is a Terrenganu state own company, and people may say it contains political risk, it's successful transformation in recent years has proved the ability of its management of steering the company in correct growing path. I believe prospect is bright for TDM in years to come. And the recent plunge of earning and plunge of share price present a very good entry point and hefty margin of safety, to participate in the growth story of TDM.
NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees. I may already have positions in the above mentioned counter. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Managing personal finance is similar to managing insurance company
Recently while I am researching insurance's share, I find that we as an working individual, the flowing of money around us is very similar, or even same as an insurance company. Let me compare in head to head below:
First I want to explain briefly how an insurance company works. Insurance company receives premium through underwriting. Throughout the year there are claims coming in and insurance company has the obligation to pay. On top of that, insurance company need to spend money to run the business and spend fee and commission to feed their network of selling agency. Because of the uncertainty of how much huge the claim might be and when the claim might come, the insurance company never can be sure the premium receive in the year can cover the claims in the year (although calculated by actuaries how low the probability might be). So the insurance company will always use the surplus (after deduct claim, management expenses, fee commission, other expenses) whenever possible to invest and build investment asset and investment income. As their investment asset and income grow bigger and bigger, with their liabilities well managed, insurance company can sleep well knowing that almost every claim can be met with no worry.
Now I want to explain about the financial position of a working individual. By working, we earn a salary. Throughout the year there is unplanned spending we need to make, like travel or vacation, car break down, hospitalisation, family commitment, extra shopping, luxury buying, etc. On top of that, there are planned spending and basic need spending for our living. Because of the uncertainty of how much huge the unplanned spending and when it will come (note: growing too old also is an unplanned spending/liabilities), we always save some of our salary to cover that too. We have the choice to invest our saving in fix deposit, equity,, property, bond, unit trust etc. As our investment asset and investment income grow bigger and bigger, definitely need to be faster than the grow of liabilities, we feel more comfortable that we can sail through any of the future unexpected events when they arise with no financial worry.
So, if you feel any insurance company is in better financial condition than you or is managing their money or finance better than you, you can consider investing in that insurance company's share.
First I want to explain briefly how an insurance company works. Insurance company receives premium through underwriting. Throughout the year there are claims coming in and insurance company has the obligation to pay. On top of that, insurance company need to spend money to run the business and spend fee and commission to feed their network of selling agency. Because of the uncertainty of how much huge the claim might be and when the claim might come, the insurance company never can be sure the premium receive in the year can cover the claims in the year (although calculated by actuaries how low the probability might be). So the insurance company will always use the surplus (after deduct claim, management expenses, fee commission, other expenses) whenever possible to invest and build investment asset and investment income. As their investment asset and income grow bigger and bigger, with their liabilities well managed, insurance company can sleep well knowing that almost every claim can be met with no worry.
Now I want to explain about the financial position of a working individual. By working, we earn a salary. Throughout the year there is unplanned spending we need to make, like travel or vacation, car break down, hospitalisation, family commitment, extra shopping, luxury buying, etc. On top of that, there are planned spending and basic need spending for our living. Because of the uncertainty of how much huge the unplanned spending and when it will come (note: growing too old also is an unplanned spending/liabilities), we always save some of our salary to cover that too. We have the choice to invest our saving in fix deposit, equity,, property, bond, unit trust etc. As our investment asset and investment income grow bigger and bigger, definitely need to be faster than the grow of liabilities, we feel more comfortable that we can sail through any of the future unexpected events when they arise with no financial worry.
So, if you feel any insurance company is in better financial condition than you or is managing their money or finance better than you, you can consider investing in that insurance company's share.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Specific Return on Equity, sROE
People normally use return on equity ROE to judge the attractiveness of a business. Return on equity can be calculated from using net profit from income statement divided by equity in balance sheet. The value normally can be found in the media such as newspaper, magazine, and research report. Warren Buffet use 15% as a general guideline to judge between whether a business is attractive or not.
Here, I would like to do a little modification and introduce "specific return on equity", sROE.
Equity can also be defined as book value, which mean the value business owner will get if the business is going to closed down and liquidated. Theory wise, if the price to book, P/B, or price to equity, is 1, you buy into the book value and earn the return same as the original business owner's return on equity, ROE. However, normally you don't get to buy the exact price to book value of 1. You will buy at 0.8, 1.4, 2 etc depend on the market quoted price at the time. The equity value now you are buying into is not the same with the equity value in the balance sheet. Your specific equity value should be adjusted by multiplying the equity value of balance sheet with the price to book you are buying into.
To simplify that, your specific return on equity should be ROE divided by the price to book value you bought the share. You will get higher ROE than the business ROE if you buy below price to book value of 1. If you buy at more than 1 price to book value, the return on equity you get will be less than the business ROE.
The use shall be used in the acquisition of business, but also can be used as a guideline in general investment.
Here, I would like to do a little modification and introduce "specific return on equity", sROE.
Equity can also be defined as book value, which mean the value business owner will get if the business is going to closed down and liquidated. Theory wise, if the price to book, P/B, or price to equity, is 1, you buy into the book value and earn the return same as the original business owner's return on equity, ROE. However, normally you don't get to buy the exact price to book value of 1. You will buy at 0.8, 1.4, 2 etc depend on the market quoted price at the time. The equity value now you are buying into is not the same with the equity value in the balance sheet. Your specific equity value should be adjusted by multiplying the equity value of balance sheet with the price to book you are buying into.
To simplify that, your specific return on equity should be ROE divided by the price to book value you bought the share. You will get higher ROE than the business ROE if you buy below price to book value of 1. If you buy at more than 1 price to book value, the return on equity you get will be less than the business ROE.
The use shall be used in the acquisition of business, but also can be used as a guideline in general investment.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Forward from Bank Negara Malaysia: Warning on Illegal Forex Trading in Malaysia
Bank Negara Malaysia would like to caution members of the public not to participate in any illegal investment or training programme on foreign currency trading offered by individuals or companies both domestic and foreign.
Members of the public are usually enticed to attend such investment or training programmes with promises of quick and good returns. The modus operandi of such programmes have included:
1) Offering free training, seminars or workshops to lure investors, prior to inviting investors to set-up an online foreign currency trading account with a principal company (purported to have valid licence to trade foreign currency overseas);
2) Providing convenient access to the principal company's website and trading facilities to facilitate online foreign currency trading by investors;
3) Recruitment of fresh graduates as marketing executives and encouraging them to get their family and friends to trade foreign currency;
4) Requiring investors to deposit an amount of money into a bank account to begin trading foreign currency, and subsequently, requesting for a top up on their initial investment ("margin call") to avoid losing their capital.
Under the Exchange Control Act 1953 (ECA):
1) It is an offence for a person in Malaysia to buy or sell foreign currency or do any act which involves, is in association with, or is preparatory to, buying or selling of foreign currency with any person, other than an authorised dealer.
2) It is also an offence for a person to aid or abet another person to buy or sell foreign currency with any person, unless the person is an authorised dealer.
The list of authorised dealers and financial institutions permitted by the Controller of Foreign Exchange to buy or sell foreign currency are as below:
Affin Bank Berhad
Affin Islamic Bank Berhad
Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corporation (Malaysia) Berhad
Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad
Alliance Islamic Bank Berhad
AmBank (M) Berhad
AmIslamic Bank Berhad
Asian Finance Bank Berhad
Bangkok Bank Berhad
Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Berhad
Bank of America Malaysia Berhad
Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (Malaysia) Berhad
CIMB Bank Berhad
CIMB Islamic Bank Berhad
Citibank Berhad
Deutsche Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
EON Bank Berhad
EONCAP Islamic Bank Berhad
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Hong Leong Islamic Bank Berhad
HSBC Amanah Malaysia Berhad
HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad
J.P. Morgan Chase Bank Berhad
Kuwait Finance House (Malaysia) Berhad
Malayan Banking Berhad
Maybank Islamic Berhad
Mizuho Corporate Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
OCBC Al-Amin Bank Berhad
OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
Public Bank Berhad
Public Islamic Bank Berhad
RHB Bank Berhad
RHB Islamic Bank Berhad
Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Berhad
Standard Chartered Saadiq Berhad
The Bank of Nova Scotia Berhad
The Royal Bank of Scotland Berhad
United Overseas Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
Last Updated Date : 08 March 2012
UPDATED 7 August 2012
You can find the list of known companies and websites which are not authorised nor approved under the relevant laws and regulations administered by Bank Negara Malaysia:
http://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/2012/Financial_Consumer_Alert_listEN.pdf
For further enquiries, members of the public can contact Bank Negara Malaysia at:
BNMTELELINK (Customer Service Call Centre)
1-300-88-5465 or
E-mail: bnmtelelink@bnm.gov.my
Members of the public are usually enticed to attend such investment or training programmes with promises of quick and good returns. The modus operandi of such programmes have included:
1) Offering free training, seminars or workshops to lure investors, prior to inviting investors to set-up an online foreign currency trading account with a principal company (purported to have valid licence to trade foreign currency overseas);
2) Providing convenient access to the principal company's website and trading facilities to facilitate online foreign currency trading by investors;
3) Recruitment of fresh graduates as marketing executives and encouraging them to get their family and friends to trade foreign currency;
4) Requiring investors to deposit an amount of money into a bank account to begin trading foreign currency, and subsequently, requesting for a top up on their initial investment ("margin call") to avoid losing their capital.
Under the Exchange Control Act 1953 (ECA):
1) It is an offence for a person in Malaysia to buy or sell foreign currency or do any act which involves, is in association with, or is preparatory to, buying or selling of foreign currency with any person, other than an authorised dealer.
2) It is also an offence for a person to aid or abet another person to buy or sell foreign currency with any person, unless the person is an authorised dealer.
The list of authorised dealers and financial institutions permitted by the Controller of Foreign Exchange to buy or sell foreign currency are as below:
Affin Bank Berhad
Affin Islamic Bank Berhad
Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corporation (Malaysia) Berhad
Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad
Alliance Islamic Bank Berhad
AmBank (M) Berhad
AmIslamic Bank Berhad
Asian Finance Bank Berhad
Bangkok Bank Berhad
Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Berhad
Bank of America Malaysia Berhad
Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (Malaysia) Berhad
CIMB Bank Berhad
CIMB Islamic Bank Berhad
Citibank Berhad
Deutsche Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
EON Bank Berhad
EONCAP Islamic Bank Berhad
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Hong Leong Islamic Bank Berhad
HSBC Amanah Malaysia Berhad
HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad
J.P. Morgan Chase Bank Berhad
Kuwait Finance House (Malaysia) Berhad
Malayan Banking Berhad
Maybank Islamic Berhad
Mizuho Corporate Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
OCBC Al-Amin Bank Berhad
OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
Public Bank Berhad
Public Islamic Bank Berhad
RHB Bank Berhad
RHB Islamic Bank Berhad
Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Berhad
Standard Chartered Saadiq Berhad
The Bank of Nova Scotia Berhad
The Royal Bank of Scotland Berhad
United Overseas Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
Last Updated Date : 08 March 2012
UPDATED 7 August 2012
You can find the list of known companies and websites which are not authorised nor approved under the relevant laws and regulations administered by Bank Negara Malaysia:
http://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/2012/Financial_Consumer_Alert_listEN.pdf
For further enquiries, members of the public can contact Bank Negara Malaysia at:
BNMTELELINK (Customer Service Call Centre)
1-300-88-5465 or
E-mail: bnmtelelink@bnm.gov.my
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Globalization consequences
In last article, I mentioned about globalization widening the gap between the rich and the poor. With the pressure from the rich countries and individuals all around the world, property price has shoot up all over emerging and poorer countries. Because the property price has gone up fast in recent years, a lot of youngsters in the age of 20s and 30s in my country, Malaysia, rush and dump most if not all of their life saving, into property, thinking that if they do not buy now, they cannot afford in latter years. Some even get monetary support from their parents. They realized that the rise of their income will not keep pace with the rise of property price.
I am a bit worry about it as this may be another kind of property bubble. I am not able to tell how the problem is, but I think this "scare to fall behind" mentality is not a healthy phenomenal, and do not reflect normal affordability and demand among the youngsters of the poorer and emerging countries.
They are bearing more debt to income compare to previous generation because of that. They do not have much money left after paying off housing installment every month. Naturally, they will spend less, so consumer buying power or domestic demand should be weak.. If they borrow, their debt increase further and creating another debt bubble. Currently, a lot of countries interest rate is at very low level historically. I am not sure, but I am afraid the current global demand is somehow inflated because of that.
The 20s and 30s youngsters are the main pillar of the countries. If the property price does drop, not only their life will become more difficult, their countries also will face big problem. So, to all the youngsters except the rich one, i am not saying that buying property now is a bad idea, but I want to say is please control your financial prudently.
I am a bit worry about it as this may be another kind of property bubble. I am not able to tell how the problem is, but I think this "scare to fall behind" mentality is not a healthy phenomenal, and do not reflect normal affordability and demand among the youngsters of the poorer and emerging countries.
They are bearing more debt to income compare to previous generation because of that. They do not have much money left after paying off housing installment every month. Naturally, they will spend less, so consumer buying power or domestic demand should be weak.. If they borrow, their debt increase further and creating another debt bubble. Currently, a lot of countries interest rate is at very low level historically. I am not sure, but I am afraid the current global demand is somehow inflated because of that.
The 20s and 30s youngsters are the main pillar of the countries. If the property price does drop, not only their life will become more difficult, their countries also will face big problem. So, to all the youngsters except the rich one, i am not saying that buying property now is a bad idea, but I want to say is please control your financial prudently.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Globalization Causing Structural Problem
Today I learned something from a popular Chinese Economy commentary talk show 石评财金分析, about globalization. He said, globalization has benefit us but also bring in bad consequences. The benefit of course is the international trading that increase the economy pie of the world. The consequences is it has widen the gap between the rich and the poor. This is one of the important reason why the demand is so difficult to pick up after 2008/2009 financial crisis.
In the globalization world, money flow freely. The rich countries flow the money to poorer and developing countries and inflate the all the asset prices. What happen to the majority poorer people in developing country? They do not gain anything. In fact, they feel the pressure getting harder and harder to survive. The rich controls the game and gain from the poor to make them richer, while the poor stay poor and helpless. The only way for the people is to walk down the street to protest, later may be the government will implement protectionism trade policies, and hurt the global economy further.
After 2008/2009 crisis, the demand drop substantially following the burst of bubbles. Governments realized the structural problems of the widening gap between the rich and the poor, but all prefer to inject more money into the economy to save the market. The short term countermeasure although worked, but create numerous of bad consequences, such as the increase of public debt of some European countries, Spain bank's problems because of the country's housing bubbles, inflated asset price and municipal debt bubble in China. However, with all the monetary measures, after more than 3 and a half years, the demand still very weak globally, and the rich and poor gap keep widening.
I think step aside the short term economy gain, it is better to solve the structural problem before the people riot intensify and cause serious violences and spread to all the world.
In the globalization world, money flow freely. The rich countries flow the money to poorer and developing countries and inflate the all the asset prices. What happen to the majority poorer people in developing country? They do not gain anything. In fact, they feel the pressure getting harder and harder to survive. The rich controls the game and gain from the poor to make them richer, while the poor stay poor and helpless. The only way for the people is to walk down the street to protest, later may be the government will implement protectionism trade policies, and hurt the global economy further.
After 2008/2009 crisis, the demand drop substantially following the burst of bubbles. Governments realized the structural problems of the widening gap between the rich and the poor, but all prefer to inject more money into the economy to save the market. The short term countermeasure although worked, but create numerous of bad consequences, such as the increase of public debt of some European countries, Spain bank's problems because of the country's housing bubbles, inflated asset price and municipal debt bubble in China. However, with all the monetary measures, after more than 3 and a half years, the demand still very weak globally, and the rich and poor gap keep widening.
I think step aside the short term economy gain, it is better to solve the structural problem before the people riot intensify and cause serious violences and spread to all the world.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Setting new goal
Feel like want to run a marathon. May be it is the desire fire lit by my favorite author, Haruki Murakami, I feel that since I like jogging, may be I should take up this challenge.
I feel awake when i have new challenge. Setting goal and work hard to achieve give life meaning. I never run more than 5 km, so I knew that in order to run the marathon, I need to adopt different mindset, and apply different running method and strategies.
To link it to investment, leaders sometimes need to try something different to solve the stubborn financial or economy problem. There is no way they can solve the problem with the same countermeasure which did not work. May be the world needs to find new direction of growth or hope to pull us out from the current global financial or economy difficulty. Same as company, company profitability or competitiveness will not change or even deteriorate if the management do not reinvent the working method or direction continuously..
Having new goal is important, to a country, company and individual like us. It gives hope and extracts our inner ability for us to grow further.
I feel awake when i have new challenge. Setting goal and work hard to achieve give life meaning. I never run more than 5 km, so I knew that in order to run the marathon, I need to adopt different mindset, and apply different running method and strategies.
To link it to investment, leaders sometimes need to try something different to solve the stubborn financial or economy problem. There is no way they can solve the problem with the same countermeasure which did not work. May be the world needs to find new direction of growth or hope to pull us out from the current global financial or economy difficulty. Same as company, company profitability or competitiveness will not change or even deteriorate if the management do not reinvent the working method or direction continuously..
Having new goal is important, to a country, company and individual like us. It gives hope and extracts our inner ability for us to grow further.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Diversification
Investment is really a scary thing. The world outside change so fast that one could not be possible to get all the information, so much so as a person as lazy and not very smart as me. What I normally do is just grab some information from news or the company announcement and link it with the annual reports and do some analysis and calculation, with the hope to outsmart the market.
Of course you need to know roughly the big picture of the world. But big picture is big picture, it is easier said than understand. To me, it is still just like me being a blind man get to know the shape of an elephant by touching the let say ear or leg of the elephant. When the stock go the way as I hope for, I will think that I get the big picture right. But when the stock go the other way round, i will think that I do not know some information and get the big picture wrong.
When something go wrong, first I will search for any new updated bad news that I miss out. If there is no bad news found by me, I will ignore and think it is just a short term market volatility, provided that it do not drop wildly out of my expectation. Once a stock I owned drop so much out of my expectation, you bet that I will get panic and revalue the stock very much lower. I sold at loss. You know, it bounced back later when somebody buyout the whole business at a very high price. That was the case of of my previous experience. The stock occupied quite a huge percentage of my portfolio causing huge volatility of my portfolio. I put a huge bet on a wrong tree that I never thought it can be a wrong tree. The lesson is to diversify.
I hope that people who happen to read my blog diversify your portfolio wisely. In that sense, it will act as many many blind men touching different part of the elephant. You will be able to define the big picture in a more accurate way. Bet on 1 single stock or 2 therefore is a very dangerous game and chances are very high that you will get it wrong.
Of course you need to know roughly the big picture of the world. But big picture is big picture, it is easier said than understand. To me, it is still just like me being a blind man get to know the shape of an elephant by touching the let say ear or leg of the elephant. When the stock go the way as I hope for, I will think that I get the big picture right. But when the stock go the other way round, i will think that I do not know some information and get the big picture wrong.
When something go wrong, first I will search for any new updated bad news that I miss out. If there is no bad news found by me, I will ignore and think it is just a short term market volatility, provided that it do not drop wildly out of my expectation. Once a stock I owned drop so much out of my expectation, you bet that I will get panic and revalue the stock very much lower. I sold at loss. You know, it bounced back later when somebody buyout the whole business at a very high price. That was the case of of my previous experience. The stock occupied quite a huge percentage of my portfolio causing huge volatility of my portfolio. I put a huge bet on a wrong tree that I never thought it can be a wrong tree. The lesson is to diversify.
I hope that people who happen to read my blog diversify your portfolio wisely. In that sense, it will act as many many blind men touching different part of the elephant. You will be able to define the big picture in a more accurate way. Bet on 1 single stock or 2 therefore is a very dangerous game and chances are very high that you will get it wrong.
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Look beyond numbers.
In time of very depress and hopeless, a lot of the company's financial statements look the same, full of blood. Their share price also reaching no value. If you want to take really really huge profit, you have to look at those counters, and look beyond the financial statement.
Because in this point of time, government will come out with policies, helping those companies that are too important to the countries and economy, sometimes bail them out. After the government took actions, suddenly the financial statement and outlook change to good, and the share price rocketed sky high!
Because in this point of time, government will come out with policies, helping those companies that are too important to the countries and economy, sometimes bail them out. After the government took actions, suddenly the financial statement and outlook change to good, and the share price rocketed sky high!
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Dilemma of unit trust agent
One of the bad things about being a unit trust agent is they don't know what the risks are actually taken by fund manager. Combination of stocks In the fund only published semi annually or annually. Even though published, almost all unit trust agents do not understand the stocks bought by the fund manager, (if they know, they wouldn't be unit trust agents but fund managers), they also don't have detail of underwater stocks as transactions may have been made before the publication (detail transactions are not revealed).
As unit trust agents, they are told about the objective of the fund, the market risk of the fund, and they are brain washed to believe stubbornly that dollar cost averaging strategy will win ultimately. They don't realize that the too long time taken for market to recover will build up opportunity cost too high that in many case, invest in bond fund might fare better. Although stipulated in the prospectus the risks involve, the risk taken by fund manager in anticipating for long term return might turn out to be wrong bet in volatility and changing economy, which is out of expectation of investor. (you can see that when the fund performance going down is way exceed the benchmark and never recover when market or benchmark rebound).
A previously perfectly good track record may not guarantee future performance. Although every unit trust agent learn it during their license examination, they quickly forget it when they enter into sale force. They are brainwashed to worship their unit trust product and company, convincing themselves the product they are selling is the best product, and anyone miss it should feel regret. They soon become confuse when the situation turn bad.
As unit trust agents, they are told about the objective of the fund, the market risk of the fund, and they are brain washed to believe stubbornly that dollar cost averaging strategy will win ultimately. They don't realize that the too long time taken for market to recover will build up opportunity cost too high that in many case, invest in bond fund might fare better. Although stipulated in the prospectus the risks involve, the risk taken by fund manager in anticipating for long term return might turn out to be wrong bet in volatility and changing economy, which is out of expectation of investor. (you can see that when the fund performance going down is way exceed the benchmark and never recover when market or benchmark rebound).
A previously perfectly good track record may not guarantee future performance. Although every unit trust agent learn it during their license examination, they quickly forget it when they enter into sale force. They are brainwashed to worship their unit trust product and company, convincing themselves the product they are selling is the best product, and anyone miss it should feel regret. They soon become confuse when the situation turn bad.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Optimism VS pessimism
I came across TED talk suggesting we human like to focus on pessimism things. Our brain has a part specially made for us to alert the possible danger threatening our survival. Thus, we tend to amplify the bad news and ignore good news. Let me give a few of examples of bad news and good news, see if the claim is true to you.
Bad news
Euro zone might break down, US economy is crawling and global economy will continue to be bad, China economy is slowing down. Many companies are either cutting job or freeze hiring, employment picture continue to be bleak. If middle east war started, everything will be gone.
Good news
Like never before, educated people is growing at the fastest pace, from China India to Africa, due to growing internet coverage and abundance of information available at almost no cost. Furthermore, mobile phone and Internet coverage are spreading fast in poor and developing countries.
Some research has found a way to convert any source of water into drinkable water, and coca cola is dumping money to develop the technology further.
Solar energy cost has come down more than 50% since last decade. Abundance of energy can be expected.
We human had overcome problems again and again. Although there are problems lie ahead of us, the TED speaker suggest that ultimately we human will find solution. He emphasizes on the good news and suggest that this decade and coming decade will be the most important period of human success.
Bad news
Euro zone might break down, US economy is crawling and global economy will continue to be bad, China economy is slowing down. Many companies are either cutting job or freeze hiring, employment picture continue to be bleak. If middle east war started, everything will be gone.
Good news
Like never before, educated people is growing at the fastest pace, from China India to Africa, due to growing internet coverage and abundance of information available at almost no cost. Furthermore, mobile phone and Internet coverage are spreading fast in poor and developing countries.
Some research has found a way to convert any source of water into drinkable water, and coca cola is dumping money to develop the technology further.
Solar energy cost has come down more than 50% since last decade. Abundance of energy can be expected.
We human had overcome problems again and again. Although there are problems lie ahead of us, the TED speaker suggest that ultimately we human will find solution. He emphasizes on the good news and suggest that this decade and coming decade will be the most important period of human success.
Friday, June 15, 2012
My investment strategy
I find this period of financial world is in chaos, very much like the early stage of three kingdom in china history. There are lots of opportunity and trap along the way. In order to succeed in this period, a sound and solid strategy is needed.
My strategy is simple. Find undervalue stock with clear growth path, low debt, sufficient cash; or very good company with fair value but not catching much market attention. Find a few of them with different business nature so to diversify the portfolio. Plan ahead sufficient available capital to invest for upcoming financial crisis.
Limiting to the undervalue quality or good stock, when financial crisis come, the stock which drop the most will offer opportunity to buy cheap, the stock which do not drop much means it has the strength and will gain attention to pick up faster when the market recover.
Because of that, it should be wise to invest equally to every stock when financial crisis arrive.
My strategy is simple. Find undervalue stock with clear growth path, low debt, sufficient cash; or very good company with fair value but not catching much market attention. Find a few of them with different business nature so to diversify the portfolio. Plan ahead sufficient available capital to invest for upcoming financial crisis.
Limiting to the undervalue quality or good stock, when financial crisis come, the stock which drop the most will offer opportunity to buy cheap, the stock which do not drop much means it has the strength and will gain attention to pick up faster when the market recover.
Because of that, it should be wise to invest equally to every stock when financial crisis arrive.
Saturday, June 9, 2012
Beware of scam
Market have those kind of businesses that they sell certain ordinary thing with extraordinary price. They will add some features that cannot be trace by technology or scientific proof. Some of the examples are ordinary thing but add in fortune teller wisdom, feng shui, religious feature that will bring good or modify for good things for your life. I am not sure why superstitious will become so popular in the main street, among educated people, but I think this is not a good phenomenal because it will draw in con man to create scam, as those "value added" cannot be explained or proof.
Monday, May 28, 2012
Emotion in investment will take you nowhere.
Previous years I was too emotional about investment. I tend to buy on feel good factor, on my own perception. I tend to buy after reading some research report or some investment blog. Sometimes I will flip through the annual report and see what the chairman and management say about the business.
Most of the time, I didn't firstly do a thorough research of the industry and compare all the similar stock available in the markets, financially and management quality wise. I am always too afraid to miss the boat. So I held a principle that I will buy a bit now, then for I will be motivated to conduct research later if I have some stake in it. Almost all the time, I will not do the research afterwards. And the bad thing is I lost confident easily when the whole market drop. I am not sure whether the business will be affected by how much severe. So I am worried.
This year I want to clear my worry as I will sell down the unsure worried and non performing, maintain good management and prospect company, and search for good quality undervalue stock. This really require a lot of hard work and very time consuming. But, fortunately, that's my interest.
Most of the time, I didn't firstly do a thorough research of the industry and compare all the similar stock available in the markets, financially and management quality wise. I am always too afraid to miss the boat. So I held a principle that I will buy a bit now, then for I will be motivated to conduct research later if I have some stake in it. Almost all the time, I will not do the research afterwards. And the bad thing is I lost confident easily when the whole market drop. I am not sure whether the business will be affected by how much severe. So I am worried.
This year I want to clear my worry as I will sell down the unsure worried and non performing, maintain good management and prospect company, and search for good quality undervalue stock. This really require a lot of hard work and very time consuming. But, fortunately, that's my interest.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
A Look at Asia emerging market's value
When you look at PE chart of MSCI ex Japan, it's approaching valuation of 2008, and 1998. and it's around the lowest level in 25 years time. It's valuation is similar with troubled Europe countries. When you look at Malaysia PE, it is still around 10 years average, which is still far away from the lowest valuation of 2008. Malaysia is an exceptional case as most of the shares are controlled by business owner and government arm. Foreign investor contribution portion is substantially less than regional peers. Moreover, when the media concentrate on positive side of the news, its market's reaction to external shock will be slow. However it will change swiftly if there is any political shock in the country.
Asia emerging market is growing at a fast pace with their ever stronger fiscal position. Why is the market trade at such low valuation? The Asia emerging market emerge stronger after each crisis. They will be taking over more share of global economy this round, and more importantly, there are still lots of excitement and opportunity to grow here.
I think it's a good idea to agressive research and accumulate some good companies with bright prospect in Asia emerging market here now and hold for 10 to 20 years. The world will be different then.
Asia emerging market is growing at a fast pace with their ever stronger fiscal position. Why is the market trade at such low valuation? The Asia emerging market emerge stronger after each crisis. They will be taking over more share of global economy this round, and more importantly, there are still lots of excitement and opportunity to grow here.
I think it's a good idea to agressive research and accumulate some good companies with bright prospect in Asia emerging market here now and hold for 10 to 20 years. The world will be different then.
Friday, May 18, 2012
By listing a company......
By listing a company, despite raising fund for further expansion for the company, most importantly is to enrich the major shareholder by sell out some of their share.
2nd, by listing a company, major shareholder can establish as much private owned companies as possible which can trade within the amount set by regulation with the listed company. Those companies sure profit with guarantee sales to the listed company. Those are categorized as recurrent related party transaction.
3rd, listed company can act as final resort to buy out whatever investment or asset major shareholder would like to sell. Which mean major shareholder can feel safer to invest. If anything happen like cannot find buyer or investment turn sour, listed company will come and help.
As a minor shareholder, we are always at a disadvantage position. What we can hope for is a good corporate government and strict law and implementation by overseeing authority.
2nd, by listing a company, major shareholder can establish as much private owned companies as possible which can trade within the amount set by regulation with the listed company. Those companies sure profit with guarantee sales to the listed company. Those are categorized as recurrent related party transaction.
3rd, listed company can act as final resort to buy out whatever investment or asset major shareholder would like to sell. Which mean major shareholder can feel safer to invest. If anything happen like cannot find buyer or investment turn sour, listed company will come and help.
As a minor shareholder, we are always at a disadvantage position. What we can hope for is a good corporate government and strict law and implementation by overseeing authority.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Stock performance sequence by sector
Few months ago the sequence was
1. Oil and gas, 2. Real estate 3. Oil palm 3. Consumer product.
Now the sequence change to
1. Consumer product, 2. Oil palm, 3. Oil and gas. 4. Real estate.
What will be next?
The stock performance is always interchangeable. Those sector which got behind will eventually get under value and those sector which is hot now will get over value. So, somebody will notice it sometimes and the game sequence change. Of course at that time, other reason will be given, not under or over value. But please do not get me mistaken, the reason given is true and reflect the reality, it is just how the world works to balance up when things getting unbalance.
1. Oil and gas, 2. Real estate 3. Oil palm 3. Consumer product.
Now the sequence change to
1. Consumer product, 2. Oil palm, 3. Oil and gas. 4. Real estate.
What will be next?
The stock performance is always interchangeable. Those sector which got behind will eventually get under value and those sector which is hot now will get over value. So, somebody will notice it sometimes and the game sequence change. Of course at that time, other reason will be given, not under or over value. But please do not get me mistaken, the reason given is true and reflect the reality, it is just how the world works to balance up when things getting unbalance.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Seller has some secret
We should never 100 percent trust the seller. Because most seller has incentive to sell you something tangible, intangible, service or idea. They are always bias to promote good thing. Not a single seller would tell you about competitor product's product is better even if it is true. If they are honest and don't want to lie, they will choose to avoid talking about the bad thing. In the end, customer will only get information about the good thing about the product.
We should not rush to make decision even if we are so attracted to the talking of the seller or broker. Research, verify, ask around who has experience, competitor, to get wider perspective, before making our owned decision.
P/S: seller can be anyone, like advertiser, direct seller, broker, investment agent, banker, business owner, property owner, politician, friends, unknown crowd etc.
We should not rush to make decision even if we are so attracted to the talking of the seller or broker. Research, verify, ask around who has experience, competitor, to get wider perspective, before making our owned decision.
P/S: seller can be anyone, like advertiser, direct seller, broker, investment agent, banker, business owner, property owner, politician, friends, unknown crowd etc.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Diversification of business by a listed company
If a listed company announced they want to diversify into a new business, in the name of risk management, recurring income, improve profit, etc, is it good or bad?
I think unless the new business venture can create synergy to current business, else is not a good thing. From an investor point of view, if the management has no experience and not familiar in the new venture, and the diversify action by management is just to improve profitability of the company without synergy created between those business, investor will be better off by diversifying themselves and choose the best company in each businesses to invest into.
Those company who diversify without synergy thought acts like a speculator, crowd mentality, dives into other type of business whenever the business prospect looks good, like the company is owned by them. They don't realize that most of the investor invest into the company because the company has excellent track record in the current business, not because the company management have "farsighted ability predicting the future of economy". Imagine a property developer suddenly venture into oil and gas, or a electronic manufacturing firm venture into oil palm. It is just ridiculous.
If for example the oil palm company venturing into property development because they have lots of land, or oil service company venture into upstream exploration to have full control of supply chain, or a drink company venture into snack company to create a better brand, or a bank venture into insurance business, then synergy can be created, and value can be added to the company.
I think unless the new business venture can create synergy to current business, else is not a good thing. From an investor point of view, if the management has no experience and not familiar in the new venture, and the diversify action by management is just to improve profitability of the company without synergy created between those business, investor will be better off by diversifying themselves and choose the best company in each businesses to invest into.
Those company who diversify without synergy thought acts like a speculator, crowd mentality, dives into other type of business whenever the business prospect looks good, like the company is owned by them. They don't realize that most of the investor invest into the company because the company has excellent track record in the current business, not because the company management have "farsighted ability predicting the future of economy". Imagine a property developer suddenly venture into oil and gas, or a electronic manufacturing firm venture into oil palm. It is just ridiculous.
If for example the oil palm company venturing into property development because they have lots of land, or oil service company venture into upstream exploration to have full control of supply chain, or a drink company venture into snack company to create a better brand, or a bank venture into insurance business, then synergy can be created, and value can be added to the company.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Hibiscus Petroleum
Recently, hibiscus petroleum's associate company Lime acquire 2 new concessionaire of petroleum exploration right in Norway and middle east. For your information, Hibiscus Petroleum is the first SPAC or special purpose acquisition company in Malaysia, startup IPO with no business, but using the fund raised from IPO to acquire a business within a certain period. So, 35% share of Lime is acquire recently. The transaction still pending shareholder approval. Due to Lime has several exploration right in middle east, Hibiscus Petroleum share rose to about RM1.60 from RM0.80. After this recent acquisition by Lime, Hibiscus Petroleum share price rose to RM2.10.
I would like to say here that I think Hibiscus Petroleum is a very risky investment. Because,
1st, exploration itself is a very risky business and require huge amount of investment. It might take 5 years or more from exploration stage to production stage before petroleum can be sucked up from the well. In between, no result or cash will come in, hence no dividend, more over, more cash may need to contribute into.
2nd, 35% is a minority stake, it may not have the power to control the financial or management of the Lime. It might be a passive investment and when Hibiscus Petroleum need cash or working capital, it can be only from bank, and from shareholder (potential more right issue in the future). What if the controlling shareholder do not want to pay out dividend?
Considering that, it is still speculating counter to me.
NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees. I may already have positions in the above mentioned counter. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
I would like to say here that I think Hibiscus Petroleum is a very risky investment. Because,
1st, exploration itself is a very risky business and require huge amount of investment. It might take 5 years or more from exploration stage to production stage before petroleum can be sucked up from the well. In between, no result or cash will come in, hence no dividend, more over, more cash may need to contribute into.
2nd, 35% is a minority stake, it may not have the power to control the financial or management of the Lime. It might be a passive investment and when Hibiscus Petroleum need cash or working capital, it can be only from bank, and from shareholder (potential more right issue in the future). What if the controlling shareholder do not want to pay out dividend?
Considering that, it is still speculating counter to me.
NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees. I may already have positions in the above mentioned counter. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Consumer sector in high growth market
For a high growth and populous area, consumer sector is a good place to be when talk about investment. Growth prospect is bright. It is also very defensive if the consumer product is price in an affordable range of wide consumer.
Sometimes I feel that a product that price a little bit expensive in the sense of average wages of the area, the product growth potential is tremendous. It means the product is still pioneer and mostly never been tried before. With a little promotion or advertisement to boast the curiosity of the people, the will save or borrow to buy it. Just like when we are young, we see a shoe, or computer game, or toy that we madly want but cannot afford, we will save for months to buy it. Also because of high growth, they will afford it very soon. That's why McDonald, Starbuck, car sale can grow so fast in China.
When people has some money, they want to live a better life. And once they tasted the sweetness of better life, they will want more. The desire process never stop.
Sometimes I feel that a product that price a little bit expensive in the sense of average wages of the area, the product growth potential is tremendous. It means the product is still pioneer and mostly never been tried before. With a little promotion or advertisement to boast the curiosity of the people, the will save or borrow to buy it. Just like when we are young, we see a shoe, or computer game, or toy that we madly want but cannot afford, we will save for months to buy it. Also because of high growth, they will afford it very soon. That's why McDonald, Starbuck, car sale can grow so fast in China.
When people has some money, they want to live a better life. And once they tasted the sweetness of better life, they will want more. The desire process never stop.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Be cold or no emotion, when talk about money. Only Logic...
We need to take full authority in our money. That's mean
We need to keep track of our money tightly
We need to have full authority to move our money whenever we want.
We need to know what happen all the time or have access to know what happen all the time.
We need to have alternative way to track or verify our money.
We need to have right to hire an independent parties to protect our interest.
Whenever talk about money, we need to be cold, be cautious, be very logic.
Emotional will enable others to take advantage on us.
Friendship, sympathy, relationship, etc is common tactics used by con man.
Cold is 1st barrier i know to protect ourselves, follow by knowledge and logic in subsequent barrier.
We need to keep track of our money tightly
We need to have full authority to move our money whenever we want.
We need to know what happen all the time or have access to know what happen all the time.
We need to have alternative way to track or verify our money.
We need to have right to hire an independent parties to protect our interest.
Whenever talk about money, we need to be cold, be cautious, be very logic.
Emotional will enable others to take advantage on us.
Friendship, sympathy, relationship, etc is common tactics used by con man.
Cold is 1st barrier i know to protect ourselves, follow by knowledge and logic in subsequent barrier.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
风
觉得风水是很真实存在的。
有的时候我会发觉村里喜事一宗接一宗，别个时候我会觉得村里丧事一宗接一宗。就好像有时公司会吹升职风，有时吹辞职风，吹恋爱风，或吹生孩子风，等等。这好像都不是个别一单的，好似上天刚好有什么相关的神仙路过显灵一般。
晴有时，雨有时，平安太平，天灾人祸也有时；
高有时，低有时，富贵贫穷，忙碌闲暇也有时，
激情平淡，快乐悲伤都有时，就所谓风水轮流转嘛。
所以不要以为美国可以独霸不衰，中国可以无尽成长，房价股价只会往一个方向走。哪个人会永远贫穷？哪个人会永远富有？；哪个经济会永远成长？哪个经济会永远衰退？；那个品牌会永远受欢迎？哪个品牌会永远没落？；谁会一直赢？谁会一直输？
风一直在吹，而风向一直在变。只要留得青山在，就不知道有哪天什么风会往你这儿吹呢！
有的时候我会发觉村里喜事一宗接一宗，别个时候我会觉得村里丧事一宗接一宗。就好像有时公司会吹升职风，有时吹辞职风，吹恋爱风，或吹生孩子风，等等。这好像都不是个别一单的，好似上天刚好有什么相关的神仙路过显灵一般。
晴有时，雨有时，平安太平，天灾人祸也有时；
高有时，低有时，富贵贫穷，忙碌闲暇也有时，
激情平淡，快乐悲伤都有时，就所谓风水轮流转嘛。
所以不要以为美国可以独霸不衰，中国可以无尽成长，房价股价只会往一个方向走。哪个人会永远贫穷？哪个人会永远富有？；哪个经济会永远成长？哪个经济会永远衰退？；那个品牌会永远受欢迎？哪个品牌会永远没落？；谁会一直赢？谁会一直输？
风一直在吹，而风向一直在变。只要留得青山在，就不知道有哪天什么风会往你这儿吹呢！
Sunday, March 25, 2012
谁是皇帝？
何谓皇帝？
皇帝就是想做什么就可以做什么的人。那么说皇帝是自由的象征？
那什么是自由？
是否所有欲望都能被满足就代表自由了？还是放下所有欲望才是自由了？
皇帝带领着历史前进。那么说皇帝是影响力的象征。
是向善的影响力呢？还是邪恶的影响力？
皇帝是至高无上的象征。那么说皇帝就是法律？
他可以随意编写法律。他可以任意执行法律。
皇帝是无敌的象征。那么说皇帝也是寂寞的象征？
因为无敌最寂寞嘛。
就自由，影响力，至高无上，无敌而论，
你是皇帝吗？是怎样的皇帝呢？是好皇帝还是不好皇帝？
在你心目中，谁是皇帝？是怎样的皇帝呢？是好皇帝还是不好皇帝？
皇帝这两个字对我来说太过沉重，背负着太大的压力与责任。
我选择中规中矩就好。不太好也不差是也。
皇帝就是想做什么就可以做什么的人。那么说皇帝是自由的象征？
那什么是自由？
是否所有欲望都能被满足就代表自由了？还是放下所有欲望才是自由了？
皇帝带领着历史前进。那么说皇帝是影响力的象征。
是向善的影响力呢？还是邪恶的影响力？
皇帝是至高无上的象征。那么说皇帝就是法律？
他可以随意编写法律。他可以任意执行法律。
皇帝是无敌的象征。那么说皇帝也是寂寞的象征？
因为无敌最寂寞嘛。
就自由，影响力，至高无上，无敌而论，
你是皇帝吗？是怎样的皇帝呢？是好皇帝还是不好皇帝？
在你心目中，谁是皇帝？是怎样的皇帝呢？是好皇帝还是不好皇帝？
皇帝这两个字对我来说太过沉重，背负着太大的压力与责任。
我选择中规中矩就好。不太好也不差是也。
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Accumulating good 积福
I always think that living in this world, we must do good to this world. We need to contribute, and do charity.
Beside accumulating wealth 积财，most importantly we need to accumulating good 积福。
Therefore I join world vision to sponsor a child today and sign up to become a volunteer. By monthly contribution, I can accumulate good by helping those who needs in poor area. World vision will then pooled all the contribution together and use the money to improve the poor area living condition by building basic facility so they can access clean water, health centre, and education. I want to visit some of the poor area if there is opportunity, to understand more.
I feel that although my contribution is small, but my contribution is meaningful to the poor and also to me.
Beside accumulating wealth 积财，most importantly we need to accumulating good 积福。
Therefore I join world vision to sponsor a child today and sign up to become a volunteer. By monthly contribution, I can accumulate good by helping those who needs in poor area. World vision will then pooled all the contribution together and use the money to improve the poor area living condition by building basic facility so they can access clean water, health centre, and education. I want to visit some of the poor area if there is opportunity, to understand more.
I feel that although my contribution is small, but my contribution is meaningful to the poor and also to me.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Irrational behavior
As long as involve free market, in the name of supply demand, there will be bubble and burst, with volatility along the way. Unless, it is intentionally controlled by government, in the name of stability.
Human being is emotional. When the price surge pass certain threshold, it become uncontrollable, and price go up like crazy. In the same way, when the price down pass a certain threshold, people become panic and price go down like crazy too. The threshold is the tipping point of epidemic, spread through every corner without miss. It is such a danger. But unrealized, people is such irrational creature. Rationality is such a boring game and bring no hope for our urgent needs. Imagine if you tell a poor guy there is no hope to get rich, but can improve his life if he follow a 20 years plan. I reckon that he rather go buy jackpot everyday. In that case, he can has hope everyday that when luck come, he can get rich instantly, even though he may incur huge losses over 20 years if he don't hit jackpot, which is a lot more likely.
Yes, instantly is the point. We all live in a boring world. If we could not create excitement, our energy will slowly drained out. If there is no short term hope, we cannot generate motivation to move on. Very few people can look at a long term goal and work silencely toward the goal. We all need to complete short term goal, one by one, it is like fuel, give us energy to move on step by step to accomplish our long term goal.
Market is suppose to be a place to determine price where people who trade has different needs, different view, but poccess same level of information. everyone is rational and will not influenced by other people when making decision. This is ideal situation. When speculator and gambler come in, it's like stone throw into the water and create splash and wave, they create volatilithen and when the stone become too big, the volatility can become Tsunami!!!
Human being is emotional. When the price surge pass certain threshold, it become uncontrollable, and price go up like crazy. In the same way, when the price down pass a certain threshold, people become panic and price go down like crazy too. The threshold is the tipping point of epidemic, spread through every corner without miss. It is such a danger. But unrealized, people is such irrational creature. Rationality is such a boring game and bring no hope for our urgent needs. Imagine if you tell a poor guy there is no hope to get rich, but can improve his life if he follow a 20 years plan. I reckon that he rather go buy jackpot everyday. In that case, he can has hope everyday that when luck come, he can get rich instantly, even though he may incur huge losses over 20 years if he don't hit jackpot, which is a lot more likely.
Yes, instantly is the point. We all live in a boring world. If we could not create excitement, our energy will slowly drained out. If there is no short term hope, we cannot generate motivation to move on. Very few people can look at a long term goal and work silencely toward the goal. We all need to complete short term goal, one by one, it is like fuel, give us energy to move on step by step to accomplish our long term goal.
Market is suppose to be a place to determine price where people who trade has different needs, different view, but poccess same level of information. everyone is rational and will not influenced by other people when making decision. This is ideal situation. When speculator and gambler come in, it's like stone throw into the water and create splash and wave, they create volatilithen and when the stone become too big, the volatility can become Tsunami!!!
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Every employee can retire before 72years old
For those people when they know that they need to become millionaires to be able to retire, they are too scare that they will not be able to retire for the rest of their life. In fact, everyone can retire at 72 years old with ZERO saving, only depend on EPF saving.
This is under reasonable assumption of Malaysia case of 3%inflation, 3%income growth, and EPF return of 5% average.
Those who interested can email me at ta000236@yahoo.com to do a free retirement planning.
This is under reasonable assumption of Malaysia case of 3%inflation, 3%income growth, and EPF return of 5% average.
Those who interested can email me at ta000236@yahoo.com to do a free retirement planning.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Retirement Plan is a Must
If you are have a define benefit pension plan, which mean the pension sponsor pay you every month after you retire until you die, you are very lucky, you are better than most of the people out there because you can live as long as you can without financial worry. In Malaysia, only government servant has the privilege to receive their pension every month until they die.
However, most of the people working in private sector. They have their pension fund as define contribution plan via EPF in Malaysia, where employer and employee both contribute certain amount to the their pension fund account. The contribution stop when they stop working. It is ok if they have high salary, and can plan properly thorough the rest of their live for another few decades. To most of the people, they do not know how to plan and spend their retirement fund within few years. After they finish their retirement fund, they have to either die or to work again.
Most of the people do not know that they need to be more than millionaire to retire to support their golden few decade years. They do not feel the urgency and thought become millionaire is a sky high dream. They do not plan for retirement.
It's in tradition that they thought they can depend on their children to support them. But, as the population growth, job competition grow; as technology advance and process become automated, less people is needed. It is getting tougher and tougher to get job in the future. Their children will have difficulty even supporting themselves alone.
However, most of the people working in private sector. They have their pension fund as define contribution plan via EPF in Malaysia, where employer and employee both contribute certain amount to the their pension fund account. The contribution stop when they stop working. It is ok if they have high salary, and can plan properly thorough the rest of their live for another few decades. To most of the people, they do not know how to plan and spend their retirement fund within few years. After they finish their retirement fund, they have to either die or to work again.
Most of the people do not know that they need to be more than millionaire to retire to support their golden few decade years. They do not feel the urgency and thought become millionaire is a sky high dream. They do not plan for retirement.
It's in tradition that they thought they can depend on their children to support them. But, as the population growth, job competition grow; as technology advance and process become automated, less people is needed. It is getting tougher and tougher to get job in the future. Their children will have difficulty even supporting themselves alone.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Monday, February 20, 2012
Monopoly game: Europe countries are settling their rent (debt)
Those Europe countries who are deep in debt are selling their asset. They are selling their airport, farm land, mountain, aircraft, government's share in public companies, concessionaire, electric company, water company, etc. It's fire sale! Rich countries would love that. Rich companies would love that.
Do you know, this is exactly the real example of monopoly game. When you have no money to pay, you have to mortgage your assets, or sell your asset to other richer player. This is how the wealth being transfered and how the rich will become richer. Europe is a rich continent for centuries. They will not bankrupt this round, but lots of their wealth will be transferred.
Do you know, this is exactly the real example of monopoly game. When you have no money to pay, you have to mortgage your assets, or sell your asset to other richer player. This is how the wealth being transfered and how the rich will become richer. Europe is a rich continent for centuries. They will not bankrupt this round, but lots of their wealth will be transferred.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Malaysia's wealth
Due to population growth, inflation problems, devalue of currency, everybody is rushing into buying real assets. Asset like agriculture land, oil and gas, mining assets, gold, silver, and other precious metal, water asset, electric asset, energy asset, etc, are selling like hot cakes.
In Malaysia, oil and gas reserve is soon no longer enough to support it's own people. Mining assets is very less in amount to call it a wealth.
Luckily, Malaysia is blessed with agriculture land, and forestry sunshine as well as fresh water. Those are the real wealth for Malaysia.
In Malaysia, oil and gas reserve is soon no longer enough to support it's own people. Mining assets is very less in amount to call it a wealth.
Luckily, Malaysia is blessed with agriculture land, and forestry sunshine as well as fresh water. Those are the real wealth for Malaysia.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Nothing to do but speculation
If someone follow fundamental investing, he has to wait for years before he can see some profit, and he could wait even longer, say for example more than 5 years if there is a financial set back happen within the period. It could be painfully long to for those who monitor their portfolio everyday.
If the market is going nowhere, almost nobody will have the patience to coup with the seems like non moving shares. He will be then tempted to leave his position to follow the crowd into hot speculation investment.
If there is lots of risk brewing behind market, he is tempted to sell his position in shares and dive into short term speculation trading gambling on short term market direction.
Those are the situation now as more and more people left the fundamental camp and go into speculation camp to gain quick profit.
If the market is going nowhere, almost nobody will have the patience to coup with the seems like non moving shares. He will be then tempted to leave his position to follow the crowd into hot speculation investment.
If there is lots of risk brewing behind market, he is tempted to sell his position in shares and dive into short term speculation trading gambling on short term market direction.
Those are the situation now as more and more people left the fundamental camp and go into speculation camp to gain quick profit.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Trading
Trading is fun, especially striking a deal.
Before trading, you study what is important to your trading partner, their need, their characteristic and style; and what is your own strength and weakness. Then you think of what solution can you offer and trade it with what you want. When we are doing that, we stand on our trading partner's position of thinking, we stand on our own position of thinking, in order to achieve a win win solution.
After we offer the trade, we begin negotiate with our trading partner. By observing their face, their talking, we get their respond about our offer. By whatever way, we then persuade, refine offer, cold war with them. If by any mean cannot reach a both satisfy deal, we walk away. This is how I see negotiation.
Before trading, you study what is important to your trading partner, their need, their characteristic and style; and what is your own strength and weakness. Then you think of what solution can you offer and trade it with what you want. When we are doing that, we stand on our trading partner's position of thinking, we stand on our own position of thinking, in order to achieve a win win solution.
After we offer the trade, we begin negotiate with our trading partner. By observing their face, their talking, we get their respond about our offer. By whatever way, we then persuade, refine offer, cold war with them. If by any mean cannot reach a both satisfy deal, we walk away. This is how I see negotiation.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Off from share market
I know there is opportunities in the market, as the opportunity is always there, but I have lost my sense in market direction therefore not in the mood of getting into it at the moment. I couldn't find a reason to do that. Partly is the large debt situation and the uncertainty of how long the problem will be dragged.
I am not selling any of my equity position, nor buying into. I may be miss the boat, but i am rather happy to sit down watching the situation unfold while accumulating cash.
I am not selling any of my equity position, nor buying into. I may be miss the boat, but i am rather happy to sit down watching the situation unfold while accumulating cash.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Appreciation of Renminbi
I think China Renminbi appreciation can help solve the world economy problem a lot. I think the world economy problem is caused by economy imbalance between China and advanced countries.
According to theory, countries who are running account surplus, their currency need to appreciate. Countries who are running account deficit, their currency have to depreciate. Considering that, USD need to be depreciate against Renminbi, Euro need to be depreciate against Renminbi. Obviously, both USD and Euro depreciation rate against Renminbi are too slow. China artificially does it by selling their currency and lend to those advance countries to spend. Hence, because of the inflow of huge money, the lending rate become very low. This induce people in advance countries to spend beyond their mean.
Now that they have borrow too much. Their financial institutions have been very cautious to lend money now, because although the inflow is huge, their leverage is at all time high too. Because of this financial distress, they need to begin their long painful deleveraging process. In other word, their aggregate demand has reach limit.
China has the biggest population in the world. And they have the highest saving rate in the world. As long as Renminbi appreciate, and they feel richer and spend more, I believe they can offset the drop of demand of advance countries because of currency depreciation and deleveraging process. More over, this can restore competiveness of advance countries and solve global imbalance problem, which is the root cause of this economy turmoil.
According to theory, countries who are running account surplus, their currency need to appreciate. Countries who are running account deficit, their currency have to depreciate. Considering that, USD need to be depreciate against Renminbi, Euro need to be depreciate against Renminbi. Obviously, both USD and Euro depreciation rate against Renminbi are too slow. China artificially does it by selling their currency and lend to those advance countries to spend. Hence, because of the inflow of huge money, the lending rate become very low. This induce people in advance countries to spend beyond their mean.
Now that they have borrow too much. Their financial institutions have been very cautious to lend money now, because although the inflow is huge, their leverage is at all time high too. Because of this financial distress, they need to begin their long painful deleveraging process. In other word, their aggregate demand has reach limit.
China has the biggest population in the world. And they have the highest saving rate in the world. As long as Renminbi appreciate, and they feel richer and spend more, I believe they can offset the drop of demand of advance countries because of currency depreciation and deleveraging process. More over, this can restore competiveness of advance countries and solve global imbalance problem, which is the root cause of this economy turmoil.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Initial stage of stock screening
My current 1st stage of stock screening process is to find company which can grow revenue and earning simultaneously, through quarterly reports. I believe in this economy difficult time, it's hard to find, unless they are innovative, gaining market share, or small in size where growth is still abundance in it's industry wise or size wise.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Housing market
Can you smell the deal? The housing market is beginning to turn to buyer's market.
It's not just the price, it's the way the advertisement sound, luring buyer to buy like "super cheap deal", "super worth", started to loom.
One of the indicator to look for is the rising of rental yield, representing drop of property price.
It's not just the price, it's the way the advertisement sound, luring buyer to buy like "super cheap deal", "super worth", started to loom.
One of the indicator to look for is the rising of rental yield, representing drop of property price.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
How to win monopoly game
Monopoly game is a fantastic game. Its truely real life. You can view player as you or a company.
1) cash flow is the single most important thing. Build it.
2) Make sure you and the company you invest always have cash to meet daily life and daily operation, including allowance for unexpected event that need cash.
3) After fulfill step no.2 requirement, all cash are excess cash. Find place to park your excess cash at places provide highest return with tolerable risk
4) As your asset or investment generate income, reinvest the cash and find place to park the cash like step no.3.
5) Always review and repeat step no.2 to step no.4. As you have more asset, cash flow grow.
Additional tips:
6) When supply become limited, willing / not afraid of, to bid for high price or offer record high price, depending on your financial strength, (financial strength can be known by reviewing step no.2) to get asset and to grow income, but most important to gain competitive advantage.
7) Willing / not afraid of, to buy / trade with other for very high or record high price, to get asset that have potential to provide you competitive advantage, in whatever way (even mortgage)
Lesson
8) When you are strong, (most importantly you have a lot of good assets, 2ndly you have have lots of cash) you have negotiation power, you get better deal. If you are weak, you have to accept lousy deal.
1) cash flow is the single most important thing. Build it.
2) Make sure you and the company you invest always have cash to meet daily life and daily operation, including allowance for unexpected event that need cash.
3) After fulfill step no.2 requirement, all cash are excess cash. Find place to park your excess cash at places provide highest return with tolerable risk
4) As your asset or investment generate income, reinvest the cash and find place to park the cash like step no.3.
5) Always review and repeat step no.2 to step no.4. As you have more asset, cash flow grow.
Additional tips:
6) When supply become limited, willing / not afraid of, to bid for high price or offer record high price, depending on your financial strength, (financial strength can be known by reviewing step no.2) to get asset and to grow income, but most important to gain competitive advantage.
7) Willing / not afraid of, to buy / trade with other for very high or record high price, to get asset that have potential to provide you competitive advantage, in whatever way (even mortgage)
Lesson
8) When you are strong, (most importantly you have a lot of good assets, 2ndly you have have lots of cash) you have negotiation power, you get better deal. If you are weak, you have to accept lousy deal.
Frog characteristic
Employee who likes to jump from one company to one company because they think they can have a better working environment, whether regarding money, company policy, politics, collegues; tends to change their believe easily when things go against them. They see things in short term, they are not willing to put in effort to change the working environment, they often blame others, and never look inside themselves.
If those people become employer, they will look only to profit. They will always look to change from one employee to another employee to get a better employee, they will not put in effort to train employee.
Don give up easily just because of obstacles, overcome it and you will see bright sky.
If those people become employer, they will look only to profit. They will always look to change from one employee to another employee to get a better employee, they will not put in effort to train employee.
Don give up easily just because of obstacles, overcome it and you will see bright sky.
Invest in boring company
In this generally stagnant global economy growth ahead, not every business will fall into difficult situation. Some companies will continue to earn a lot of money. I see those companies fall into quite boring company. They have stable and huge margin of positive free cash flow, huge margin of earning, stable and slow growth of revenue, low debt burden.
Those companies will gain pretty much attention in difficult time and have high valuation ultimately.
Those companies will gain pretty much attention in difficult time and have high valuation ultimately.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Sunday, January 1, 2012
为了生存而不得不演的戏
当生存被视为必然现象，学习就变成兴趣使然。可有可无，很容易就敷衍了事。当生存是必须认真守护时，破釜沉舟下，学习就变成必需。不继续学习，就无法生存，即使是你没兴趣，或不愿学的那一块。
事实上，差不多每个人都为生存奋斗着。
为了继续活着，为了保住工作，为了家庭，为了面子，为了稳定的将来。每个人为了生存，都使尽浑身解数，
勤力的就把工作做好，做多一点，但可能只会默默贡献。
懒惰的扮勤劳，偷工减料的也把工作做完。演演戏找借口偷懒。
爱表现的喜欢在老板面前檫鞋，下属或同事面前扮威风，为的是什么？为的是得到老板的赏识，力争上游。
爱说是非的，总是道听途说，让不好的谣言到处飞，讲的都是别人，以显示自己高贵。
爱面子的千万别去招惹，因为他们即使非常痛苦，压抑，也会强逼自己把答应的事做完。精神紧绷得很。
怕输的嫉妒心重，怕死的不敢承担，怕事的天天打着熟练的太极。
人是反反覆覆的，有时勤力，有时懒惰，有时想表现，有时多说些，等等，还会受情绪左右。我想说的是，每个人的生存方程式各不同。
其实，大家都在演自己的戏。一起融合在大家庭里，就变成大家共同的戏了。为了生存，试问我们如何可以为了想自命清高而不陪着大家演下去呢？
事实上，差不多每个人都为生存奋斗着。
为了继续活着，为了保住工作，为了家庭，为了面子，为了稳定的将来。每个人为了生存，都使尽浑身解数，
勤力的就把工作做好，做多一点，但可能只会默默贡献。
懒惰的扮勤劳，偷工减料的也把工作做完。演演戏找借口偷懒。
爱表现的喜欢在老板面前檫鞋，下属或同事面前扮威风，为的是什么？为的是得到老板的赏识，力争上游。
爱说是非的，总是道听途说，让不好的谣言到处飞，讲的都是别人，以显示自己高贵。
爱面子的千万别去招惹，因为他们即使非常痛苦，压抑，也会强逼自己把答应的事做完。精神紧绷得很。
怕输的嫉妒心重，怕死的不敢承担，怕事的天天打着熟练的太极。
人是反反覆覆的，有时勤力，有时懒惰，有时想表现，有时多说些，等等，还会受情绪左右。我想说的是，每个人的生存方程式各不同。
其实，大家都在演自己的戏。一起融合在大家庭里，就变成大家共同的戏了。为了生存，试问我们如何可以为了想自命清高而不陪着大家演下去呢？
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