Wednesday, August 31, 2011

The Ultimate Race

Staying too long in the comfort zone will make people lose competitiveness. They are pampered and they are losing the feeling of hunger; thus they are losing the sense of danger. This is the problem with the developed world. They will soon be catched up by those who are hunger, those who are hunger for so long.

Are you living in a comfort zone, and thought that your job will be safe forever?

Improve yourselve, improve productivity, build up competitive edge, we are in the worldwide crazy race now!!!

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Temporary relieve

People tend to forget. What Ben Bernanke said today will be meaningless tomorrow if the economy data isn't showing any improvement.
Long term growth is good? Forget about it. Investor are all short term.

Ben Bernanke have to show that he really have the tools to shore up economy when it is necessary, which is what? I believe printing money is the only effective tool he has.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Doubt about everything

Investor seems to be doubtful about everything. They doubt about US future; they doubt about the surge in gold price; they doubt about China economy; they doubt about whether Europe can solve their debt crisis; now they doubt about Germany, which is the strongest economy in Europe where people depend on Her to solve the Europe debt crisis problem, they doubt about whether their public finance is deteriorating.

There seems no certainty in the market now, whether it is gold, US dollar, Yen, commodities, bond, whatever. What is safe? May be cash.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

End of Lybia war

End of Lybia war create peace. People return to their hometown and begin their country rebuilding.

Supply chain that has been disrupted will be back to normal. This not only mean that supply of oil and gas will somewhat recover, partially, due to major detroyed of facilities; all other economy activities will recover too.

This will help global economy recovery.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Sentiment contagion effect

Negative sentiment will spread among people, turning every bullish buyer to pessimism seller, which in turn exacerbate the bearish market.
Positive sentiment will also spread among people, turning every people in the street become "investor", which further drive the market upward.

Both are temporary market anomaly. We need to be exceptionally emotional savvy to be able to spot both of these times and grab this arbitrage opportunities.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Market will find support

A lot of companies who weathered the 2008/2009 crisis had become lean and operate efficiently. They accumulate a lot of cash. Recent increasing merger and aquisiton activities showed that they are finding opportunities to strenghten their position by increasing their economical scale. Smaller or less efficient company will be consolidated or taken by them.They will have greater purchasing power, greater selling power, higher barrier for other competitor to enter, and reduced competitor.

Market drop make deal cheaper to them.

Company politic 2

10 company politicking I hate the most!!!!


1) Although they don't know, they are able to create a story and keep telling themselves that they are correct. When they are confident, people trust them, because if you are so confident, people seldom spend their precious time dig into the truth.

2) They talk like expert and superior to all other people, making other people look useless.

3) They look busy all the time and make other people looks lazy, but the truth is their productivity is low. Even worse is they complain about their pressure to those other people. Those other people often don't know how to respond only to agree and sympathy to them.

4) They think they are the most important people and ignore other people's importance and work.

5) They like to order people

6) They like to search for people mistake and amplify it during appropriate time.

7) They forget about your contribution, even worse, claim your contribution under his name to show their "superior leadership".

8) They are searching opportunity for themselves in expense of yours

9) They create conflict between you and your co worker who have conflict of interest with theirs.

10) They treat you nicely and create beautiful story to pamper you when things go smoothly according to their plan or they need you, and change their face instantly when you make mistake and create trouble for them, pushing all the responsible to you!!!


I know I am not good, but I hate politicking!!!

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Company politic

Company politic arise from conflict of interest among employee.

Today's highlight is decision making.

Everybody has their own role and responsibilities.
Manager manage, executive execute. Things should be clear and no overlapping, especially on decision making. Manager make broader decision; executive make decision base on their job scope. When you make decision on behalf of other people without other people knowledge, whether they are under your supervision, for whatever reason, creates conflict of interest.

Conflict of interest is the cause for hatred, suspicious, break of trust among employee.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Signs of next market rally

When?

When you see Japanese yen is depreciating against US dollar.
When you see euro is appreciating against US dollar.
When you see treasury bond yield normalizing from current super low rate.

That's means investor move from safety asset to risky asset again.
But when you notice that, can you catch the rally train?

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Advise for full time employee (non investment)

For those working full time in non finance area, you have no time to monitor stock, even more no time to track the company progress. You basically have no idea what the company is going to do in future, even more no time to know the current status of the company.

Because of no time, you probably only buying 2 or 3 stock, and you buy probably because people say it's good buy. The risk of lack of understanding of the company is high plus the risk of lack of diversification is high, total risk borne is extra high!!

If you fall into the category of people above, I suggest you to leave stock market and hand the investment job to the expert, to asset management company.

If you follow the economy, the most you can do is top down approach, which mean start from the economy, determine which industry will perform well, then determine which sector will perform well, then select blue chip that represent the sector.

Never never try to invest in small capital company because you will never understand them, and so the risk is extremely high for you.
Never try bottom up approach, which mean search for good company or good business to invest in, because most probably you don't understand financial report, you don't have time to do research, and you don't have time to sit down and learn.

Choose the best company to invest in

There are 2 strategies a company can adopt: cost leadership and product differentiation.
We should choose company to invest in base on which company can implement the 2 strategies most successfully among their peer group.

I am not interested in price war that who can sell the cheapest product, I am more interested in who has the cheapest cost structure, because it sure can provide the cheapest price among it's rival.
We can know who has the most cheapest cost structure by examine the company's annual report over long term.

We can know who implement product differentiation strategy most successfully by looking into market; which product is the most popular, which product can sell at higher price but still a lot people buying, what are the hot topic people are talking about. Those are the product difficult to be replaced, whether is the brand, the quality,the special feature or unique design. Normally company need to have continuously the most creative and innovative employee to ensure this strategy can be successfully implemented over long term. They need to maintain the best working culture.

If can find company that able to adopt the 2 strategies successfully, that's perfect. Please share with me. Personally also ok. My email is ta000236@yahoo.com

Saturday, August 13, 2011

The next best job

Everyone knows industrilization is the path for a country to prosperity.
Every countries trains their citizen to become engineer, doctor, lawyer, scientist, etc. Every parents want their child become engineer, doctor, lawyer, scientist, etc higher paying job;
If that is the case, in the future, who will take up the currently low pay farmer job?

Soon, food supply will be down, and price will be up.
Farmer's pay will have to rise. A lot of people will return to farming.

Friday, August 12, 2011

Market volatility VS my emotion volatility



In a week, the volatility index of US S&P500 rose to 40, highest since the height of financial crisis in end of 2008 when the Dow swing over 1000 point in a day. Now it is less than half of it, market swing 4, 5 hundreds in a day.

Market was up a day and down a day, prompting more short seller to take opportunities in market that governed by uptick rule. If this is true, market may continue this pattern, up a day, down more the next day, keep going down until ..... I hope I am smart enough to know.

Obviously I am not immune to it. I am risk adverse too as my inner emotion swing follow the market, and couldn't found peace. The market is getting cheaper but obviously I am fearful to be caught up buying into perhaps only the start of bear market, because I don't have much bullet in hand. Therefore, I am not qualify for Warren Buffet strategies, Be fearful while others are greedy, be greedy while others are fearful.



Thursday, August 11, 2011

US future

British, once the biggest creditor in the world before 20th century, became hugely laddened by debt after world war 1.
America, once biggest creditor in the world after world war became largest debtor in human history in 20th century.

However, US now is still very strong compare to British during early period of 1900 when the super power began shifting to US. US economy had then twice the size of British. British was then producing 4 times as many bicycles as the US did, but US manufactured 12 times as many cars. (quoted from "The PostAmerican World").

Some of interesting fact.
US has been maintaining their economy share of 25% since after world war 2.
US defense spending including defense R&D account for almost 50% of global spending, but it is only account for 4% of US GDP.
US still hold the highest shares of international patents in the world of 28%, although Asia is catching up in market share fast.
New technology like nanotechnology will likely be commercialized successfully in US than other part of the world mainly because of the more quality entrepreneur in US and better developed venture capital market that ensure adequate funding. Quality entrepreneurs are created by US unique education system to ours Asia that encourage creative thinking and independent thinking.

US dominates the world economy, dominates the world in science and technological progress, dominates military size. Entrepreneurship that create creativity and innovation remain strong.
For those reason, I think US will remain it's dominance position and leads the world in at least next few decades.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

US Fed to keep interest rate low until 2013

US fed to keep interest rate low until 2013 is buying time for global economy recoveries.
I think US will only play on monetary tools, and no more fiscal stimulus as there is debt ceiling agreement there.

US people still on going deleveraging process, which means no increase in spending.
With the current high employment rate, i guess probably they hope that low interest rate will encourage business spending among US companies, subsequently hiring more people and reduce employment rate, which subsequently increase spending among US people.

There will be not much growth for US company to search for in US considering dire economy situation in US. They only can search for growth outside US. Many multinational company generate around half of their profit outside US.

Perhaps with low interest rate, US maintain slow growth while emerging market catch up on their domestic economy, then we will see whether 2 years is enough to buy sustainable global recovery or not.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

What crisis? We are so tiny

There has been times when human kind enter into poverty for a long period of time and there has been time when human kind enter into long period of prosperity. To give you an idea about long period, it could be centuries of few hundred years.

For example, food was abundance during year 1300 to 1600 because of the new farming revolution in early 1300. Human population growth accelerated during this period. In the middle of 1700 to 1900, human population grew to a level where food production cannot support the surging demand. In mid of 1800, an English working household spend nearly half of their income on bread alone. Malnutrition was everywhere as evidence by the shrink of size of human skeleton whose lived through that period. Advanced in agricultural technology in 1900 saved us and lead us to prosperity again until today. (summarized from a chapter from "the end of food")

So, what will happen next? Oil? Energy? Food? Only those supply of basic living ingredient will determine our future. Please watch out for the factors that affect them, like changing of weather, supply of arable land, clean water supply, improvement of technology that boast supply, demand, increase of human population, etc.

Don't be suprise when all the basic living iingredient's price sky rocket because supply no longer meet demand. Crisis!!!
Follow up by human population shrink because of poverty, no food, no clean water. Bigger Crisis!!!
Follow by fundamentally change of human activities, society structure, etc. (All start over again, like aftermath of 2012)

But don't worry, human is the most adaptable creature. No end of the world, just end of wealth for almost all of human kind that are unprepared, not enough money to prepare, not enough time to prepare...... Currently, i am one of them for all.

Compare to this, how tiny is current market slump?


Of course, we also may found new technology that will hugely increase supply that lead us to greater prosperity in future.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Buy now?

For those want to bottom fishing and buy cheap in stock market, I suggest that please wait for a moment.
Why?

1) The market is panic now. If you buy, most probably your wallet will be cut by knife.
2) The market is anticipating a recession, for recession, I think the market should drop by around 15 percent from the recent peak. The Dow should be around 10000 and HK HangSeng should be around 18000 to 19000, Malaysia? May be around 1400.

if you are doing unit trust, please sign up dollar cost averaging and invest every month.

All the things I bet and suggest above is because even if we are heading into recession,
1) I believe the world is not going to end.
2) long term prospect is looking bright especially on emerging market like Asia market because of strong fiscal position they have built up over a decade.
3) value of the good company will look extremely attractive when the market drop to the level I suggest.

Let's wait and see. And be prepare!


NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

MAS airline turn to Airasia.

According to The Star paper, MAS is doing share swap with Airasia. Airasia will get 20% stake in MAS. Airasia is twice the size of MAS in terms of market capitalization. So, after the deal, MAS will own Airasia 10% and Airasia will own MAS 20%

Seeing the regular turn over of CEO in MAS, MAS still unable find firm solution to turn their business into rock solid profitable business. MAS again slip into massive loss after a reasonable profit in last quarter. Such a volatility of earning not only makes shareholders uneasy, but also government worry.

The deal with Airasia seems like MAS last resort, they seems to have no more capable candidate and have no choice but to 'humbly' ask their long time enemy or competitor for cooperation (or help?). With the back of government as usual, Airasia has to accept the deal. To the public, the deal is explained in a very beautiful story, but the real story behind, only Airasia know.

But with the brilliant of Airasia management teams and energy and charisma of Tony Fernandes, i think integration can be done and benefit of cooperation story will eventually come true, thus the future of Airasia still looks bright.

Although I am always poor at short term trading, I bet MAS is better for short term trading.

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Market slump last week

I think the market should recovered. Those debt problems in US and sovereign debt problem is not new to the investment world. They are all accumulated problem. Just like in year 1987 when suddenly the Dow drop by 20%, and also like 2008 when the market slowly drop from beginning of the year until it become extremely volatile in the end of 2008. Now is the same, the market is reaching climax, and will recover and drop again and recover, until those problem found solution, or until we can find other hopes that promise to bring bright future, bringing us to the next level of prosperity.

This market correction might continue for a while because of program setting of certain fund that will trigger sell down when market drop by a certain percentage for cut loss purpose. Liquidity is there, world economy is recovering although in a slow pace, I believe we are not heading into 2008 crisis in near future. Money in Treasury will come back to stock market soon.

Between then, market is expected to be extremely volatile.
I reckon that for general public, the best strategy now is to do dollar cost averaging in the broad market like unit trust or ETF.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Role of investor

Investment is for our better future. Where you want the future to be is where you put money into. Bill Gates put money into renewable energy because he believe that there will be a better life for us if we rely more on renewable energy. Toyota, General Motor put money into electric car because they want to make it our future car and rely less on fossil fuel. Sony put money into 3D image because they want to make 3D our future needs. Food company put money into RnD to increase productivity to meet our future needs. Telecommunication company put money to lay down cable or satellite to improve connectivity among people in the world.

Money should be allocated appropriately, it should go where we want our future to be. We can use world leader's vision as a guideline, see where they want to lead us to. Follow their vision is good idea in the sense that they will make sure those related industry can continue to make profit and have a sustainable growth to forge our future, or our dream, but need to beware of regime change.

When you think of these, you become an investor and not speculator anymore.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Storm ahead?

There come storm again. Everybody talking about US economy is heading into stagnation, some say US might even heading into loss decade like experienced by Japan in 1990 until now. Yield curve is flattening as the 10 year interest rate hit 2.58, almost same level with interest rate during height of financial crisis in end of 2008. I think most importantly, market is down because of the deal of the debt ceiling. As predicted, US raise the debt ceiling to avoid default, but it also came up with spending cut plan for years ahead. Currently US GDP growth is supported by large amount of government spending and stimulus plan. Tax cut, Medicare, housing support, etc. Reduce spending will have chain effect as it will discourage consumer spending across US and thus economy in most other part of the world where their economy link heavily with US. Unless US company is willing to invest and hire, with their huge amount of reserve, there is a big possibilities all the bad news like double dip recession, economy stagnation will happen in US.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Racing for natural resources

Resources is main ingredient for growth. The world needs to growth especially those emerging countries where population keep increasing and they are desperately want to go out from poverty. Those countries and companies who understand it is aggressively buying into resources. The world is racing for resources because everybody knows that resources is limited and getting harder to extract. Controlling the resources means controlling the wealth of the world. What I mean here for resources is Oil, Natural gas, water, electricity, agriculture land. Those are the basic for living nowadays.