Thursday, August 4, 2011

Storm ahead?

There come storm again. Everybody talking about US economy is heading into stagnation, some say US might even heading into loss decade like experienced by Japan in 1990 until now. Yield curve is flattening as the 10 year interest rate hit 2.58, almost same level with interest rate during height of financial crisis in end of 2008. I think most importantly, market is down because of the deal of the debt ceiling. As predicted, US raise the debt ceiling to avoid default, but it also came up with spending cut plan for years ahead. Currently US GDP growth is supported by large amount of government spending and stimulus plan. Tax cut, Medicare, housing support, etc. Reduce spending will have chain effect as it will discourage consumer spending across US and thus economy in most other part of the world where their economy link heavily with US. Unless US company is willing to invest and hire, with their huge amount of reserve, there is a big possibilities all the bad news like double dip recession, economy stagnation will happen in US.

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