Saturday, May 11, 2013

Unprecedented low interest rate

In this global unprecedented low interest rate environment, what happen is that highly leveraged corporates and individuals benefit as they can accelerate their deleveraging process. In the same time, huge liquidity created by central banks, profits and excess income generated by other healthy corporate companies and individuals need to be invested. Because of low interest rate, opportunity cost of not investing into higher risk asset is high. So, it drive up all asset price, namely property, stock market, high yield bond and others bonds as well. High liquidity is also solving the price anormally of lack of liquidity stock, small capital stock where marketability is low. A lot of those stocks are being discovered and revalued. Less and less arbitrage in the market as all is being exploited (money is not a problem, they can always borrow because of cheap borrowing cost). Eventually, the discount rate, thus business risk will be down (to close the premium between interest rate and discount rate) and hence, asset valuation will be up significantly.

We are in that journey, but i really dont know how long before the journey end. As long as the journey goes on, all asset price will hit new high. Some time down the road, the 2 factors: deleveraging process call upon completion and wealth effect created by high asset price, may prompt central bank to raise interest rate. At that time, we should turn cautious of the reversal of asset price.

How long? Now? 1 year, 3 years, 5 years? This is a million dollar question!

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